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Storm Chase Opportunities Monday-Thursday March 8-11

“Upstream” will have a special show tonight at 8 pm.  This is a live web show with a chat,  join in, and we’ll talk about the upcoming week.

An interesting set of storm chase possibilities exists over the next few days as a general trough of low pressure develops out west with several wind maximums rotating through it.  All model references are to today’s 12 run.

The first is Monday as the first punch of stronger jet stream winds work their way out into the Great Plains.  While the best bulk shear will be west of the maximum instability axis, there does appear to be support for some storms along the dry line from western Oklahoma curving northwest into SW Kansas.  This was the chase of choice for me for many days, especially when the models were showing it more to the east, but the distance as well as the strength/alignment of the various parameters makes me want to abandon this chase for now.

This same shortwave lifts northeast on Tuesday.  A weak surface low follows this feature into eastern Kansas and on this point, both models agree.  There is a cold core signal on this day northeast of the surface low which would include Kansas eastward into central Missouri which would include the northern and western portion of the KOLR/KFSX viewing area.  Of course, the best instability axis would be in the ArkLaTex area southward into eastern Texas.

A second area of maximum winds comes around on Wednesday.  There are differences between the NAM and the GFS with regard to the placement of the surface low by 6 pm Wednesday with the NAM more to the west in eastern Oklahoma.  This can be traced to differences in the placement of the upper level jet max.  This day will need to watched in the Ozarks and points eastward.  The GFS develops an instability axis over southern Illinois while the NAM keeps it over the Ozarks.

NAM Surface/Lifted Index 6 pm Wednesday.

GFS Surface/Lifted Index 6 pm Wednesday.

Ultimately, one cannot ignore the climatological significance of the alignment and strength of the upper level jet Thursday and Friday over the southern and eastern U.S. with progged 90 knot winds at 500 mb and 160 knots at 250 mb Thursday at 6 pm over the Texas and Louisiana.  The air would be unstable enough as forecast ahead of the surface front and curling northeast of the surface low into the Tennessee and Ohio river valleys to produce severe weather.

GFS 500 Winds 6 pm Thursday

GFS Lifted Index 6 pm Thursday

March 7th, 2010 | Category: Forecast Discussion, Storm Chase Discussion | Leave a comment Email This Post Email This Post

Storm Chase Opportunities Sunday-Monday, March 7-8

GFS CAPE at 6 pm Monday.

The evolving storm system for next week might provide some marginal chasing opportunities but the limiting factors for me would be distance and potential.

Sunday might produce some results but this would occur over far west Texas in a marginal set-up so unless something changes, Sunday is unlikely chase day.

Monday on the other hand is still a bit questionable but it does offer the intriguing possibility of weak tornadoes which occur with cold core upper level low pressure areas.

Meteorologist Jon Davies report on such events

These set-ups depend greatly on surface heating, cold air aloft, backing winds and a boundary of some kind, usually a warm/stationary or occluded front.  CAPE, a measure of instability, will often some up as marginal but as Jon points out, if the CAPE is mostly in the lowest layers of the atmosphere than a more volatile situation can occur.  He also emphasizes “pattern matching” over the actual values of the various parameters.

The GFS model has waivered a bit on the position of the axis of unstable air with this mornings’ run placing it more south than previous runs in southern Oklahoma.  I have seen it into Kansas just a day ago.

March 4th, 2010 | Tags: , , , | Category: Storm Chase Discussion | One comment Email This Post Email This Post

February 2010 Climate Summary for the Ozarks

The month started with a small temperature rally and the high actually reached 41 on the 3rd.  Warm, moist air over a chilly ground lead to a fantastic ice fog on the morning of the 3rd.

Ice Fog Coats Leaves. Photo by Leah Ikerd

But during these opening days, more winter weather was taking shape.  A snow and sleet system came up out of Arkansas on the 4th with mainly light totals.  But a bigger storm was on the horizon for the upcoming 6th and 7th.  Snow bands set up on the evening of the 6th laying down snow in portions of St. Clair, Vernon, Benton, Cedar and Hickory counties.

But the main thrust of this storm had always had its sights on northern Arkansas (again) and by Monday morning, areas of Fulton, Baxter, Sharp, Izard, Stone had picked up anywhere from 1.5 to 6″ of snow.  More heavy snow fell in this region later in the day but warm temperatures caused some of the snow to melt during the event. Little Rock summary link.

Snow Totals February 8th, 2010

 The Missouri portion of this storm was pretty decent too especially the final totals north of Springfield which were as high as 7 or 8″ in a few places. The Springfield summary link.

This snow was followed by the coldest air of the month with lows dipping  into the single digits and cold wind chills around the 9th.

Although a threat loomed of some rain/snow mix around the 18th through the 21st, the period actually ended quite warm, consisting of a stretch of above normal temperatures (the onlyof the month) with the highest being 58 degrees on the 20th.

The last days of the month tried to rally some warmer days too but they still failed to reach to normal levels.

The month was a cold and dry one overall.  The average temperature was 30.6 degrees which was the 15th coolest February for Springfield but other observation sites in Missouri ranked in the top ten coolest.

We had 2.3″ of snow officially in Springfield.

The Springfield National Weather Service has a collection of stats and reviews for the month here.

March 2nd, 2010 | Tags: , , | Category: Monthly Review | One comment Email This Post Email This Post

Springside Cyclogenesis

GFS Model's Idea of Monday 3/8 at 6 pm

The pattern of weather is shifting a bit toward the end of this week.  The upper air pattern will stop delivering arctic air to the central U.S. allowing a storm to deepen west of us for a change, putting us on the warm, spring-like side.

Cyclogenesis or low pressure development is expected over Kansas by the weekend.  Temperatures out ahead of this system will warm.  Fifties should make a comeback by Thursday.  Sixties may be possible by the weekend.

This low is forecast to pull through the region early next week.  One long range model delays the low development even more.  This should mean that warmth will rule the weekend while shower chances remain small.

Since we will be on the warm side, showers and thunderstorms are a possibility.  A discussion of the severe weather potential including my storm chasing discussion will be posted under a separate blog soon.

March 1st, 2010 | Tags: , , , , , | Category: Forecast Discussion | Leave a comment Email This Post Email This Post

December 2009 Climate Summary for the Ozarks

The first day of the month was mild but is was the exception to what was a clearly established trend toward colder weather.  In fact, the coldest air of the season settled in in the wake of a deepening storm on the 2nd.

We were slightly a flurry over the possibility of snow flurries on Wednesday the 2nd and some snow did fly that afternoon in Spirngfield and points to the east,  Winter precipitation again occurred the following Sunday the 6th with reports of light sleet and snow again mostly east of Springfield.

All eyes started staring at a big storm for the central and northern plains for December 8-9 and what affect it would have on the Ozarks.  As the event drew near, it was obvious the the Ozarks were not going to be significantly impacted by winter precipitation.

Flurries did fly on Wednesday the 9th on what turned out to the a very blustery day.  Wind gusts overnight in the wake of the deepening cyclone over Illinois went to 43 mph in Springfield, 41 in West Plains and 45 in Rolla!  The sustained strong winds during the day along with temperatures in the teens produced wind chills in the single digits.

Map at 6 a.m. 12/9/2009

Map at 6 a.m. 12/9/2009Huge Snow of December 8-9

After a bitter cold 6 above low on the morning of the 10 followed by 17  the next morning, some moderation to near or above normal temperatures arrived for the weekend of the 12-13th.

The 14th through Christmas Eve was a fairly mild period with only trace amounts of precipitation.  But around the 18tth, long range models starting showing the possibilities of a big snow near or in the Ozarks which would time out to give us a White Christmas!

The storm did eventually form with the hardest hit areas in Oklahoma and the northern plains.  The Ozarks saw trace to one inch amounts from Springfield east while the totals went up to 4-6″ close to the Kansas border. Link to the National Weather Service review.

Another snow came our way in the final week of the month.  A shortwave in the warm sector produced snow overnight into the 30th.  The snow band lifted north and pivoted to the northwest overnight and early in to Wednesday the 30th.  Amounts of 1-3″ were common in areas to the northwest of Springfield.

The last day of the year and the month was us sitting on the edge of a cold air plunge that would last well into the new year.

The month ended up four degrees below normal.  We had eight days where the thermometer failed to rise above freezing.  While snow threatened several times, Springfield ended up with 1.8″ for the month. 

This is the fifth month of the last six which recorded below normal temperatures. An excellent review of the monthly temperature and precipitation patterns has been produced by the Springfield National Weather Service.

January 2nd, 2010 | Tags: , , | Category: Monthly Review | Leave a comment Email This Post Email This Post

Facebook Test

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February 25th, 2010 | Category: Forecast Discussion | Leave a comment Email This Post Email This Post

Beginning of March

It looks like the arctic air will be taking a break through the first few weeks of March.  This means chances for normal or above normal temperatures.

The polar jet is being diverted northward over the central portion of North America around a ridge of high pressure.  Meanwhile, an active (and El Nino enhanced) southern jet stream will cut under this ridge.  Several disturbances will be moving through this southern jet pattern over the next few weeks.

This will keep our pattern of weather cool to mild.  It may enhance our rain chances if the southern systems can reach into our area.  This may also lead to more thunderstorms over the southern U.S. and in the Ozarks.  Much of the most unstable air will likely stay in the deep south with this pattern and with it lies the chances for widespread severe storms.  But each system will have to be evaluated as it approaches.

February 25th, 2010 | Tags: , , , , | Category: Forecast Discussion | Leave a comment Email This Post Email This Post
 
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