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The Rest of the Snow

Radar at 10:00 am

The heaviest snow has already targeted north central Arkansas a will continue to do so throughout the day.

Reports of 2-4″ have come in from Searcy Co. AR with general 1-2″ amounts in most of the rest of northern Arkansas.  Cherokee Village reported 3.5″ early this morning.  The radar image above shows that the northern edge of the very obvious heavy precipitation area will pass over these same areas today, dumping another 4-6″, bringing storm totals in the 8-10″ range for some.

Missouri had 2″+  totals north of Springfield overnight.  Most areas received a dusting to almost 1″.  Another band of snow will affect this area today with a 2-3″ additional potential.  Snow will last into the evening in many areas, not ending to the east of Springfield until midnight.

Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak 2008

Super Tuesday Outbreak 2008

This supercell storm pictured below took on bow echo shape as it dropped a tornado right on top of Gassville, Arkansas. Bow echo tornadoes can be powerful and destructive. Unlike tornadoes emerging from the so-called “classic” supercell, bow echo tornadoes are often shorter-lived and their signature on radar can be less obvious.

Damage surveys put this tornado at EF2, on an EF0-EF5 scale.

This storm was moving to the northeast at around 60-65 mph!

Radar image at 5:06 pm on February 5th, 2008, a few mintues before a tornado strikes Gassville, AR

 

The Gassville storm was on the northwest edge of a widespread outbreak of tornadoes. Another supercell, this one with a classic radar configuration, raced northeast through central and northeastern Arkansas during the same evening. The first tornado report came out of Ola in Yell County, Arkansas. The supercell then continued northeast, spawning the longest tracked tornado in Arkansas history, killing a total of twelve people. See the complete report from the Little Rock, NWS office.

Long-track Tornado!

Please read more about this outbreak in the official National Weather Service assessment below.  Among other things, the report found that many people didn’t think a tornado watch in February needed to be taken seriously and mobile homes are still the riskiest place to be during a tornado. 

Another link details the Storm Prediction Center’s efforts to raise awareness of the threat of nighttime or off-season tornadoes.

NWS Service Assessment of the Outbreak

SPC Nighttime Tornado Outlooks

December 2009 Climate Summary for the Ozarks

The first day of the month was mild but is was the exception to what was a clearly established trend toward colder weather.  In fact, the coldest air of the season settled in in the wake of a deepening storm on the 2nd.

We were slightly a flurry over the possibility of snow flurries on Wednesday the 2nd and some snow did fly that afternoon in Spirngfield and points to the east,  Winter precipitation again occurred the following Sunday the 6th with reports of light sleet and snow again mostly east of Springfield.

All eyes started staring at a big storm for the central and northern plains for December 8-9 and what affect it would have on the Ozarks.  As the event drew near, it was obvious the the Ozarks were not going to be significantly impacted by winter precipitation.

Flurries did fly on Wednesday the 9th on what turned out to the a very blustery day.  Wind gusts overnight in the wake of the deepening cyclone over Illinois went to 43 mph in Springfield, 41 in West Plains and 45 in Rolla!  The sustained strong winds during the day along with temperatures in the teens produced wind chills in the single digits.

Map at 6 a.m. 12/9/2009

Map at 6 a.m. 12/9/2009Huge Snow of December 8-9

After a bitter cold 6 above low on the morning of the 10 followed by 17  the next morning, some moderation to near or above normal temperatures arrived for the weekend of the 12-13th.

The 14th through Christmas Eve was a fairly mild period with only trace amounts of precipitation.  But around the 18tth, long range models starting showing the possibilities of a big snow near or in the Ozarks which would time out to give us a White Christmas!

The storm did eventually form with the hardest hit areas in Oklahoma and the northern plains.  The Ozarks saw trace to one inch amounts from Springfield east while the totals went up to 4-6″ close to the Kansas border. Link to the National Weather Service review.

Another snow came our way in the final week of the month.  A shortwave in the warm sector produced snow overnight into the 30th.  The snow band lifted north and pivoted to the northwest overnight and early in to Wednesday the 30th.  Amounts of 1-3″ were common in areas to the northwest of Springfield.

The last day of the year and the month was us sitting on the edge of a cold air plunge that would last well into the new year.

The month ended up four degrees below normal.  We had eight days where the thermometer failed to rise above freezing.  While snow threatened several times, Springfield ended up with 1.8″ for the month. 

This is the fifth month of the last six which recorded below normal temperatures. An excellent review of the monthly temperature and precipitation patterns has been produced by the Springfield National Weather Service.

Snow Update

It still looks as if the Ozarks will experience a pretty good snow beginning later tonight.  While light snow will likely affect everybody through early Tuesday morning, there appear to be a few more intense bands.

Tonight, snow will spread in and will target areas north of Springfield first with broad 1-3″ totals.  Then late Monday morning, another batch will begin in the MO/ARK border area and northern Arkansas which will be the heaviest and all interests in that area should watch this closely for snow exceeding 4″!  Finally a more general snow will affect the area well into Monday evening.  This will dump another several inches in Springfield and much of southwest Missouri.

“Upstream” will broadcast at 4 pm and 11:30 pm today, Sunday.

 

Latest on Next Storm

Today, large flakes fell but amounts will be held back by melting and a weaker, northward-tracking system.

All attention will now be placed on the late Sunday and Monday storm.  One computer model is colder and supports nearly pure snow starting Sunday night and prints out heavier snow, certainly over six inches.

Another model used a lot shows an initial snow heading into west central Missouri Sunday night and a trend toward a warmer atmosphere early Monday in the southern Ozarks.

Both models seem to target a swath from southeastern Kansas northeast into the northern viewing area as the heaviest snow accumulation area.

The entire area should be on the lookout for heavy snow accumulation during this period!

“Upstream”

Extended today 4-6:30 pm, 6:30-7 pm and 11 pm to ??.  I will also do a special show Sunday sometime.

A Little of Everything then Snow, then SNOW

Radar @ 10:25 am

Drivers in Springfield should watch out for slightly slick conditions beginning around 11 am and lasting into the afternoon!

Today, the atmosphere can support just about any winter precipitation type.

The radar image included is one of light snow, sleet and freezing rain.  Rain would also be possible today.  Surface temperatures are just a touch above freezing outside of the precipitation and drop to around and just below in the core of radar echoes.

In the upper atmosphere, temperatures are actually warm enough for rain but once again, in the core of the precipitation areas, enough cooling is taking place to mix it up a bit.

While accumulations are expected to be light, traveling south of Springfield and into portions of northern Arkansas might be slick!

An accumulating snow is still expected starting overnight tonight as the atmosphere cools overall and all precipitation converts to snow.

A broad area of 1-3 inches of snow can be expected before in tapers off Friday evening.

A bigger snow is still expected late Sunday and Monday.

The live webshow “Upstream” will be on again today and tomorrow at special times:

4-6:30 pm              Live chat and images, limited audio

6:30 – 7:00 pm      Full live show

11:00 – ? pm           Full live show

Next Two Storms

GFS Model's Idea for Snow Through Friday


Two winter weather systems are coming our way.

My live webcast “Upstream” will be going into extended coverage mode because of this.  The live chat with limited audio will be available from 4 pm to 7 pm each day this week.  I will have a full audio map discussion at 6:30 pm and at the usual time at 11 pm.  It looks likely that I will be doing special shows this weekend too as the stronger of the two storms approaches.

A storm system will thicken clouds over the area Thursday with rain following Thursday night.  The northern and northwestern edge of that rain will have to be watched for snow that night.  During the day Friday, winds will shift around to support more pure snow over the area accompanied by a small disturbance will likely lay down a several inches of snow.  I’ll post a snow projection map on the news tonight.

A more robust storm will affect the area beginning Sunday evening and lasting through Monday evening.  This looks to be leaning toward all snow again especially on Monday.  It is too early to project totals with confidence on this storm yet.

Ted Keller on Gig Salad