Our first tropical storm in the Atlantic has formed. “Ana” is what is left of Tropical Depression #2 which had dissapated but has now found new strength. Close on it’s heels, an area with a high probability of development might become tropical storm “Bill” before the weekend is over. UPDATE: TD#3 (“Bill” wannabe) on the morning NHC update.
My blogs this week have been discussing these storms and their possible impact on the southeastern U.S. Long-range models continue to make the eastward system into a strong hurricane. You can view this for yourself. Go to this link, click on “10 m Wind” row and choose the column for the latest model run. “12z” uses data from 7 am local time and wouldn’t be available until about 5 hours after. Most mornings, you can use the “06z” data (1 am CDT run time) after 6 am. “z”, by the way, stands for “Zulu”; it is also called GMT or UTC, all of these simply refer to the current time in Greenwich, England at 0 degrees longitude. It’s a universal time which ensures that all weather observations are taken at the same time across the globe.
It’s interesting that the 06z run curves this storm over the Gulf stream before hitting Florida and up toward New York and New England. Other runs have taken this storm into the Gulf of Mexico. My blog the other day discussed why these storms curve; in this case the jet stream disturbance which will drive yet another cool front through the Ozarks late this week will be the same one which turns this storm. If the model is right of course!
Also, a great (and good-looking) site for tropical tracking can be found here.