It looks like the arctic air will be taking a break through the first few weeks of March. This means chances for normal or above normal temperatures.
The polar jet is being diverted northward over the central portion of North America around a ridge of high pressure. Meanwhile, an active (and El Nino enhanced) southern jet stream will cut under this ridge. Several disturbances will be moving through this southern jet pattern over the next few weeks.
This will keep our pattern of weather cool to mild. It may enhance our rain chances if the southern systems can reach into our area. This may also lead to more thunderstorms over the southern U.S. and in the Ozarks. Much of the most unstable air will likely stay in the deep south with this pattern and with it lies the chances for widespread severe storms. But each system will have to be evaluated as it approaches.
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