Ceaseless Wind

GFS CAPE at 6 pm Monday.

The evolving storm system for next week might provide some marginal chasing opportunities but the limiting factors for me would be distance and potential.

Sunday might produce some results but this would occur over far west Texas in a marginal set-up so unless something changes, Sunday is unlikely chase day.

Monday on the other hand is still a bit questionable but it does offer the intriguing possibility of weak tornadoes which occur with cold core upper level low pressure areas.

Meteorologist Jon Davies report on such events

These set-ups depend greatly on surface heating, cold air aloft, backing winds and a boundary of some kind, usually a warm/stationary or occluded front.  CAPE, a measure of instability, will often some up as marginal but as Jon points out, if the CAPE is mostly in the lowest layers of the atmosphere than a more volatile situation can occur.  He also emphasizes “pattern matching” over the actual values of the various parameters.

The GFS model has waivered a bit on the position of the axis of unstable air with this mornings’ run placing it more south than previous runs in southern Oklahoma.  I have seen it into Kansas just a day ago.