NAM Model Surface Map at 1 am Sunday
Well, there is enough cold air behind this weekend’s cold front to support snow. This point has been under speculation since the last weekend.
I have watched the models show this possibilities but with different solutions. Yesterday , the entire possibility shifted ahead about twelve hours from a Saturday evening to an early Saturday morning event. That was the odd solution out and we’re back to a slower front and a late Saturday/Sunday chance which seems more reasonable.
A “wave” or area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the front and a pocket of cold air aloft will linger into the area on Sunday, both of these features could spike the snow chances for the Ozarks. This mornings’ runs of the models both have an area of low pressure winding up east or southeast of the Ozarks late Saturday. This does have the potential to lay down a snow track in western Missouri and/or northwest Arkansas especially toward Saturday evening as cold air is drawn southward and temperatures naturally fall after dark.
For an accumulating snow this time of year, the intensity has to be strong enough to overcome the surface temperatures. This again may be aided by nightfall.
The Ozarks should keep in mind that Saturday afternoon temperatures will be at 60 or higher in southern Missouri/northern Arkansas while temperatures will fall quickly to just above freezing in western Missouri by dark.
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