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Storm Chase Discussion

May Day Chase!

Saturday Severe Weather Outlook

It’s very possible I will be heading out east Saturday on a storm chase! If the computer models hold, the target area will be in the Missouri boot heel southward into eastern Arkansas.  Portions of Texas might be at risk as well.

The overall situation is a large upper level trough with two shorter waves (areas of stronger winds/every) rotating through this system.  The first of these waves will possible produce severe weather in the Ozarks Friday.

The second wave will come out into the threat area on Saturday.  It appears is if this feature can induce a weak low pressure system to form immediately to the west of the outlook area.  If this indeed happens, then the threat for significant severe weather will go up!

The 12 run of the NAM is interesting in that it shows an area of rather high EHI’s from northeast Texas to southern Tennesee.

I will update this chase forecast through the week as things can and do change from day to day.  Friday’s severe weather threat is covered in another blog!

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