Ceaseless Wind

High Risk Today!

The southeastern U.S. has taken a beating with the storms last Saturday and last night.  Now, another high risk has been posted for the area pictured. 

There is a tremendous amount of moisture as measured by the dew points (colored areas) on the inserted map.  This is poised and ready in the high risk area.  What will likely happen is an increase in south to southeasterly wind flow near the surface later this afternoon and evening.  Another jet stream “max” is coming up out of Texas which will help with the development of a low pressure area over the western portion of the threat area. The winds should respond to this feature.

The computer models have been showing this for a few days but with slightly different results.  The GFS has always been more aggressive with the low development.  The morning run of the NAM has come around on the winds a bit more.  This model is also forecasting 0-3km SRH of 150-300 at 21z (4pm), jumping to 300-350 by 7 pm with these values then expanding over all of eastern Arkansas by after dark.  CAPE is progged at over 2000.

The ongoing cells are likely to been producing severe weather by just after noon in some areas.  This is not the main show!  This is expected by early evening over the high risk area.

I will be out with the Mobile Weather Lab today.  I’ll cross my fingers on live streaming on Severe Studios.