Ceaseless Wind

Severe Outlook for Monday

This has been holding together for a few days now in the computer model forecasts so confidence is running higher that an outbreak of storms will occur over the central Great Plains Monday.

There has been some fluctuation in the position of the dry line which defines the western edge of the threat area,  If it ends up over central portions of Oklahoma and Kansas, the Ozarks would see whatever supercell thunderstorms do develop move into the area later that evening.

One computer model  (NAM) from 12z Friday has pushed the dryline back westward after trending more east the past few runs.  The GFS model is sticking with an “I-35″ (or thereabout) solution which is more east.

Since the event is still 78-84 hours away, there will likely be more adjusting of the position east or west.

The differences are arising because the speed and position of the shortwave trough are radically different between the NAM and GFS computer model!  I posted the images below.  This will make a HUGE difference in where the threat area ends up!  This position will shore up as soon as we get closer to Monday and the shortwave “comes ashore” to be sampled better by upper air measurements.

My friends Matt Gingery and Jill Gilardi will be out chasing on a special project starting Monday.  What a way to kick things off!  I wish them luck and safe travels!

I will be doing a special “Upstream” broadcast on Sunday evening, most likely after the 00z NAM comes out which will be after 9 pm sometime.  I’ll keep you posted!

NAM 500 mb 7pm MondayGFS 500mb at 7pm Monday