Severe Storms Tonight?

9:54 am in Forecast Discussion, Severe Storms by Ted Keller

 

Severe Storms for Friday

The jet stream is increasing out over the Great Plains and this will help to drive organized severe storms eastward today from Kansas into Missouri.  Some of these storms could be severe by the time they reach the Ozarks later tonight.

The SPC has a slight risk of severe storms in an area just northwest and north of Springfield. 

The overall wind shear is favorable for supercell thunderstorms out west in Kansas.  While a warm air cap is always a concern, the forcing involved with the front and jet stream should be enough to overcome the cap in at least a few areas. 

The storms east of Springfield in Howell, Shannon and Dent Counties will continue to move east.  Meanwhile, showers and storms are developing near the approaching system in Kansas and this will continue to grow into the slight risk area today.

The rain bulls-eye will occur over northern and central Missouri.  Storms should show a tendency to fill back to the southwest later this evening and these will be the heaviest the Ozarks see this evening and overnight.

The jet stream is marginal for supercells but a few could develop.  Hail is not a large threat due to high freezing levels but damaging winds are a real possibility with some storms in the risk area.  Tornadoes are not a huge risk but any supercell that does develop will have to be watched.  The greatest risk would be near the Kansas City area and eastern Kansas early this evening.