Heavy Hermine Rain?

Meteorologist Ted Keller posted this in Extreme Weather, Forecast Discussion on September 6th, 2010

Visible Satellite of Hermine

As tropical storm Hermine moves along the extreme western Gulf of Mexico, the main question for the Ozarks is: will this storm spike our rain totals to the extreme later this week? In light of the extreme rains of Wednesday and Thursday of last week, this question is certainly on the minds of many.

The official National Hurricane Center forecast has the remnants of Hermine in Oklahoma by Thursday morning. This will end up being a heavy rain producer wherever it ends up tracking so the question is how close to the Ozarks will this rain bulls-eye get?

The morning computer model runs are somewhat split. One (NAM) favors a slower, more westward track with 2-3″ totals while another model (GFS) has a more widespread heavy rain for the Ozarks in the range of 3-4″. Both models seem to want to keep the heaviest rain west-north of Springfield starting on Thursday afternoon.