Ceaseless Wind

Rain Path of Erin 2007

Tropical Storm Hermine came ashore near south Texas last night and now the task of figuring out where the heavy rain arc will end up begins!

First off, the projected track looks a bit like that taken by the remnants of tropical storm Erin back in August of 2007.  That particular system activated rain over southwest Missouri and produced just shy of a foot of rain in Miller, MO (Lawrence County).

Hermine is projected to pass west of Springfield proper and this is where the heaviest rain is forecast to fall on Thursday.  The official Hydrological Prediction Center forecast of precipitation includes 3-4″ totals in an arc including western and central Missouri.

5 Day Rain Forecast

 Unforunately, the rain is projected into an area which has had plenty on average from late spring through the summer.  The dry areas in the Ozarks are along the Missouri/Arkansas border, especially the more east you head.