Thanksgiving Outlook

11:23 am in Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

It’s about a week out but I can start making some reasonable speculations regarding the weather starting on Wednesday and going through the Thanksgiving holiday.

In the period leading up to Wednesday, a big travel day, warm conditions will prevail over the Ozarks.  It appears as if a cool front does try to nudge its way into the area on Tuesday.  Computer models want to stall this front just south of the area by Wednesday.  There will be a large zone of temperature change north-south over the Ozarks on Wednesday.  While we will be on the cool side of the front, it doesn’t look like the coldest of the arctic air will be in our area.  Read: the front or any precipitation that forms behind it or as it advances back to the north should remain liquid.

Now, an upper air storm is forecast to move over this front by Thanksgiving.  This has the effect of producing low pressure and also drawing down arctic air.  The placement and arrival of arctic air has been in speculation for quite some time.  Presently, waves along the front as it lies to the south and east of the Ozarks may be enough to spread precipitation into the Ozarks.  There might be enough cold air in place by then to support winter precipitation.

My view of it now is to prepare for some showers or even a thunderstorm Monday/Tuesday, followed by cooler conditions through Thanksgiving.  We should keep an eye on how far south the cold air penetrates and on the details of the upper levels on Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

These are all based on long range forecasts which have varying degrees of reliability.  I’ll keep you posted.  FYI: it is way to early to confirm any type of storm!