Pre-Holiday Storm Threat

5:59 am in Forecast Discussion, Severe Storms, The Ozarks by Ted Keller

Dew Points at 5 am

Here’s the latest on the severe weather expected over the area later today.

A large storm at the jet stream level is progressing into the area today.  Upper level winds have increased and the surface winds are quite strong too.  This is a strong wind shear environment and is supportive of severe storms in the Ozarks.

As is typical in “cool season” set-ups like this, the amount of unstable air is in question.  But experience has shown that as long as the proportions of shear and instability are correct, severe storms can flurish.

At this point, it looks like storms will slowly develop over the Ozarks starting around 4 pm. Those with the greatest potential be become severe early on should be in the vicinity of the MO/KS/AR/OK borders where instability will be maximized.  This is also the area where the storms will start out isolated (discrete, non-linear)

Eventually, the storms will begin to form lines and progress eastward over the Ozarks.  With such strong winds near the surface, an isolated tornado threat is real with any supercell storms.

Tornado Probability Within a 25 mi Circle

Everyone should monitor the weather carefully today as small-scale changes in the timing of features and the development of pockets of unstable air could alter the intensity of these storms.

The strong cold front that everyone is aware of will begin to speed up this evening and slide through the Ozarks after the midnight hour.  I will have a separate post regarding this front and what it will do to our Thanksgiving Day weather!