White Christmas?

9:09 am in Winter Weather by Ted Keller

I think our chances for seeing a white Christmas in the Ozarks are slightly higher than average…

This weekend weather system won’t do it even if it does manage to lay down some measureable snow as it will melt pretty quickly.

The basis for my observation comes from just casually glancing at the long-long range models, those that run out 10 days (or more).  Now, no one should ever believe the exact output of any of these models of course.  But I do think you can pick up on some trends if you watch them long enough.

The overall trend for the next several weeks is a progressive pattern of  cold air invasions with storm systems coming out of the northwest and “making the turn” so to speak over the central U.S.  Simply put: there is cold air and storm potential!

As an example, this morning there is a hint at something around the 15th, another near the 18th and perhaps even a third right before Christmas. 

Now, the dates are not nearly as important as number of systems.  While there is no guarantee that any of these will contain the right mixture of cold air for snow or track in a favorable way for the Ozarks, well, how does it go, half the battle is just showing up?  Something like that…

FYI: this is all  in line with what is expected during a La Nina pattern of weather over the U.S.  which puts a precipitation maximum just to our east.

When all is said and done, our ground may end up bare this holiday but hey, this is the season for faith and believe, right?  I’m a believer!