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  • Ted Keller wrote a new blog post: Welcome “Weather and Climate” Students   3 years ago · View

    It’s a new semester and there is lots to cover! This week, we’ll get right on the topic of Hurricane Irene and do a “crash course” lecture on tropical weather systems. I’ll also cover the basics of atmospheric composition and structure, talk about weather maps and charts and give an assessment test. Be sure to [...]

  • Ted Keller wrote a new blog post: White Christmas   3 years, 8 months ago · View

    Thumbnail Odds are against us getting Christmas to be white with snow most of the time but this year we should should see it! The storm first highlighted last week has actually held together and the timing puts it into the Ozarks on Christmas Eve.  As with most storms, the track is in disagreement among the computer [...]

  • Ted Keller wrote a new blog post: Winter Systems   3 years, 8 months ago · View

    ThumbnailThere are two weather systems which will tap into the abundance of cold air in place over the central U.S. this week.  At this writing, neither seems to be a huge threat. The first slides in Wednesday.  It’s main threat is to produce light showers and drizzle which will fall into sub-freezing morning air on Wednesday.  [...]

  • Ted Keller wrote a new blog post: Weekend Cold (and snow?)   3 years, 8 months ago · View

    ThumbnailAnother arctic front will slam through our area on Saturday.   While Minneapolis and parts of the upper Midwest are under a blizzard watch, our portion of the system consists of a cold front and very strong winds in the wake of the front. Snow chances come in two forms: a brief changeover late Saturday as the [...]

  • Ted Keller wrote a new blog post: White Christmas?   3 years, 8 months ago · View

    ThumbnailI think our chances for seeing a white Christmas in the Ozarks are slightly higher than average… This weekend weather system won’t do it even if it does manage to lay down some measureable snow as it will melt pretty quickly. The basis for my observation comes from just casually glancing at the long-long range models, [...]

  • Ted Keller wrote a new blog post: Snow and Cold   3 years, 8 months ago · View

    ThumbnailGet ready for more arctic air, led in by some snow this weekend. The overall picture hasn’t changed too much since yesterday.  There is still a disturbance diving into the central U.S. this weekend from the northwest.  It still looks like it will rev up a storm which gets stronger as it moves east of us.  [...]

  • Ted Keller wrote a new blog post: Weekend Snow   3 years, 8 months ago · View

    Thumbnail A weekend snow?  It seems more likely for a portion of the Ozarks as of this morning. In yesterday’s blog , I was commenting on the reliability of the various runs of a long-range computer model I look at a lot.  Over the past 24 hours, four “runs” have come out and they all converge on a low [...]

  • Ted Keller wrote a new blog post: Snow Possible   3 years, 8 months ago · View

    ThumbnailWhen arctic air finds it easy to roost in the heartland of the U.S., watching for snow possibilities becomes my favorite past-time.  Here’s the latest… Long-range computer models have been sending some signals as to the possibility of a snow-producing storm around December 11-12th (Saturday-Sunday) for about a week now.  As usual, such chances are taken with a [...]

  • Ted Keller wrote a new blog post: Multiple Tornadic Supercells on Wednesday   3 years, 9 months ago · View

    Thumbnail A pre-Thanksgiving outbreak of supercell thunderstorms occurred on Wednesday the 24th in the Ozarks.  Some produced tornadoes. It would be a challenge for me to count them from memory!  I know that several passed over the same corridor affecting portions of Vernon, Cedar, St Clair, Hickory, Polk, Dallas and Camden counties.  This was the earlier [...]

  • Ted Keller wrote a new blog post: Today’s Winter Junk   3 years, 9 months ago · View

    Thumbnail After hours of tornado warnings yesterday with possible touchdowns, we have been flung into the icebox today! Area temperatures have fallen to right around freezing or just below in portions of the Ozarks.  Meanwhile, precipitation echoes are still showing up on radar.  Since the arctic air has undercut warmer air aloft, the precipitation is falling [...]

  • Ted Keller commented on the blog post Travel Day Thunder   3 years, 9 months ago · View

    Well, the Ozarks have seen a major ice storm each of the last three years, I hope we skip this year!

  • Ted Keller wrote a new blog post: Pre-Holiday Storm Threat   3 years, 9 months ago · View

    Thumbnail Here’s the latest on the severe weather expected over the area later today. A large storm at the jet stream level is progressing into the area today.  Upper level winds have increased and the surface winds are quite strong too.  This is a strong wind shear environment and is supportive of severe storms in the [...]

  • Ted Keller commented on the blog post Travel Day Thunder   3 years, 9 months ago · View

    Yep, these do have some wind potential!

  • Ted Keller wrote a new blog post: Latest Thanksgiving Weather Outlook   3 years, 9 months ago · View

    Thumbnail Cold weather is coming!  This isn’t in question really as the cold front has been very consistent showing up on the long range computer models. While it still appears an arctic front will progress through the Ozarks in short order late Wednesday or early Thursday, it is always worth watching carefully especially since enough cold air is [...]

  • Ted Keller wrote a new blog post: The Perils of Long-Range Forecasting   3 years, 9 months ago · View

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    I thought you might enjoy looking at these maps.  Each shows surface highs and lows (black lines, isobars), precipitation areas (green) and a rough approximation of temperature (dashed lines).  Each is a forecast or projection valid on noon Wednesday.  The difference is each computer model ran at different times with different input.  There are four over a [...]
  • Ted Keller wrote a new blog post: Warm Before the Plunge!   3 years, 9 months ago · View

    Thumbnail It may not seem like it this morning, but warmer days are just ahead! Enjoy them while you can. The turn to a south wind and milder conditions begins tomorrow.  Sixties are in the bag for Friday and through the weekend and into early next week.  A rouge seventy or two could be lurking in [...]

  • Ted Keller wrote a new blog post: Thanksgiving Outlook   3 years, 9 months ago · View

    ThumbnailIt’s about a week out but I can start making some reasonable speculations regarding the weather starting on Wednesday and going through the Thanksgiving holiday. In the period leading up to Wednesday, a big travel day, warm conditions will prevail over the Ozarks.  It appears as if a cool front does try to nudge its way [...]

  • Ted Keller wrote a new blog post: Snow in Missouri Mid-Week?   3 years, 9 months ago · View

    Thumbnail A “clipper” low is one which comes out of the northwest over the central U.S.  Besides being fun to say, clipper lows are usually fast-moving (the name) and don’t normally produce a lot of precipitation. We have a clipper coming toward Missouri/Arkansas by mid-week.  It’s main effect will be to spread light precipitation in the form [...]

  • Ted Keller wrote a new blog post: The Lebanon, MO Tornado November 10th, 1995   3 years, 9 months ago · View

    Thumbnail This was an interesting storm for several reasons.  First, it was a November tornado.  Actually, we shouldn’t be that surprised at this because the Ozarks have always had a significant “second season” of tornadoes which peaks in November and December, especially when it comes to outbreaks of tornadoes.  November, and all of the months of [...]

  • Ted Keller wrote a new blog post: Tropical Storm Tomas   3 years, 10 months ago · View

    Thumbnail The 19th named storm of the season “Tomas” has formed! This is a late-season tropical storm. Nevertheless, it is forecast as of today to strengthen to major hurricane status by Tuesday afternoon and be positioned in the Caribbean,  south of Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. You can track Tomas this weekend here. The storm will [...]

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