Ceaseless Wind

Various Snow Projections

Odds are against us getting Christmas to be white with snow most of the time but this year we should should see it!

The storm first highlighted last week has actually held together and the timing puts it into the Ozarks on Christmas Eve.  As with most storms, the track is in disagreement among the computer forecast models.  This has not been much of a timing issue however as Friday still looks like the day with some precipitation breaking out Thursday night.

While the precipitation is expected to be primarily snow Friday afternoon, it night start as a bit of sleet Thursday night.

The graph is valid as of about noon Wednesday.  The plot is meant for Springfield. The reddish lines are one computer model, the blueish are another.  The red model favors more snow with totals right around 2″  The blue model is not nearly as enthusiastic about the white stuff.

Now here are some Ozarks maps.  The first is the red model (NAM), the second is the blue (GFS). The NAM has more snow in general and more to the south.  The GFS has snow largely missing the Ozarks except for areas east of Springfield.

NAM snow

GFS Snow

I’m always a bit torn on snow around Christmas because I know folks want to travel to to see friends and family or to do last minute shopping and even a light snow can snarl things up a bit.  On the other hand, if the actual snow ends up in-between these two models. it won’t be too bad and only an over night snow into Christmas Day could be timed out better! 

What we don’t want is a repeat of 2002, which for those of you who don’t recalled dumped a huge snow on the Ozarks on the 23rd, slowing Springfield down to a crawl!  It took me nearly two hours to get from near Battlefield Road to the studio that day!

Tom and Jill will have the latest!  I’m watching this one from home.  Be safe!

I think our chances for seeing a white Christmas in the Ozarks are slightly higher than average…

This weekend weather system won’t do it even if it does manage to lay down some measureable snow as it will melt pretty quickly.

The basis for my observation comes from just casually glancing at the long-long range models, those that run out 10 days (or more).  Now, no one should ever believe the exact output of any of these models of course.  But I do think you can pick up on some trends if you watch them long enough.

The overall trend for the next several weeks is a progressive pattern of  cold air invasions with storm systems coming out of the northwest and “making the turn” so to speak over the central U.S.  Simply put: there is cold air and storm potential!

As an example, this morning there is a hint at something around the 15th, another near the 18th and perhaps even a third right before Christmas. 

Now, the dates are not nearly as important as number of systems.  While there is no guarantee that any of these will contain the right mixture of cold air for snow or track in a favorable way for the Ozarks, well, how does it go, half the battle is just showing up?  Something like that…

FYI: this is all  in line with what is expected during a La Nina pattern of weather over the U.S.  which puts a precipitation maximum just to our east.

When all is said and done, our ground may end up bare this holiday but hey, this is the season for faith and believe, right?  I’m a believer!