Weekend Snow

8:07 am in The Ozarks, Winter Weather by Ted Keller

Weather Map at 6pm Saturday.

A weekend snow?  It seems more likely for a portion of the Ozarks as of this morning.

In yesterday’s blog, I was commenting on the reliability of the various runs of a long-range computer model I look at a lot.  Over the past 24 hours, four “runs” have come out and they all converge on a low track which is more southerly (the one that looked least likely yesterday!).  This means an accumulating snow is more likely, especially for the western, northern and central portion of Missouri. 

It is still way too early to nail down specifics.  And, at this distance, only one model has good output.  I’ll be watching this situation!  It looks like a late Saturday event.

NOTE: latest run still showing this feature!

Snow Possible

7:42 am in Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather by Ted Keller

When arctic air finds it easy to roost in the heartland of the U.S., watching for snow possibilities becomes my favorite past-time.  Here’s the latest…

Long-range computer models have been sending some signals as to the possibility of a snow-producing storm around December 11-12th (Saturday-Sunday) for about a week now.  As usual, such chances are taken with a grain of salt until we get a bit closer to the actual forecast time.

The arctic air now in place will be lifting out of here by late in the week.  A small disturbance that I hinted at late last week will be sliding into Oklahoma late tonight and early Tuesday on the edge of this cold air with some light snow potential.  This does not appear threatening to the Ozarks.

By Saturday night, a low pressure area has been showing up swinging near Missouri.  The track and intensity of this feature has been all over the dial as they say.  A more southerly track would bring us greater snow potential.  At this writing, this seems to be the outlying possibility.

I would say the most likely scenario would be a shot of snow Saturday night as the storm intensifies while moving east.  It’s an old joke but I’ll know more on Monday the 13th!  Stay tuned to KOLR/KSFX for the latest.

Multiple Tornadic Supercells on Wednesday

10:53 am in Extreme Weather, Storm Summaries by Ted Keller

Hail near Brighton

A pre-Thanksgiving outbreak of supercell thunderstorms occurred on Wednesday the 24th in the Ozarks.  Some produced tornadoes.

It would be a challenge for me to count them from memory!  I know that several passed over the same corridor affecting portions of Vernon, Cedar, St Clair, Hickory, Polk, Dallas and Camden counties.  This was the earlier portion of the outbreak from mid afternoon through early evening. 

Damage was reported near Wheatland and Cross Timbers in Hickory County from this early round.  This was confirmed as two tornadoes today by the National Weather Service. 

Later in the evening, the supercells started shifting more to the south.  One cell starting ramping up significantly as it crossed into northwestern Greene county.  This storm continued east-northeast into southern and southeastern Polk.  This storm was responsible for multiple reports of damage near Brighton on the Greene/Polk county line. This too was confirmed as an EF1 tornado by the National Weather Service today.

Looking North from Hermitage. Photo by Ron Gamble.

A supercell started showing signs of rotation in Jasper and Newton county shortly before 8 pm.  This storm remained tornado-warned as it traveled into Lawrence county.  This was of course a concern for Greene county as it approached.  As it crossed the county and city of Springfield, multiple reports of hail from quarter to as high as ping-pong ball sized were reported.  There was also some minor wind damage.  The tornado warning picked up again as it was just leaving Greene and continued through Webster and Wright counties!

Dent county went tornado-warned for a time late in the evening followed by the final warning in Barry county just before 11 pm and into the 11 o’clock hour.

The National Weather Service has a full report on this storm.

Today’s Winter Junk

9:23 am in Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

9 am Temperatures

After hours of tornado warnings yesterday with possible touchdowns, we have been flung into the icebox today!

Area temperatures have fallen to right around freezing or just below in portions of the Ozarks.  Meanwhile, precipitation echoes are still showing up on radar.  Since the arctic air has undercut warmer air aloft, the precipitation is falling as rain or freezing rain if the temperature is at or below freezing.

So, technically, ice could form on surfaces this morning.  But because of recent warm temperatures, marginal cold and light precipitation, a major accumulation of ice is not expected.

As the cold air gets deeper, a transition to more of a sleet or snow will occur.  Again, totals are expected to be light, under half an inch.

A winter weather advisory is in effect for much of the Ozarks.  I’ll bring you the latest tonight on KOLR and KSFX!

Pre-Holiday Storm Threat

5:59 am in Forecast Discussion, Severe Storms, The Ozarks by Ted Keller

Dew Points at 5 am

Here’s the latest on the severe weather expected over the area later today.

A large storm at the jet stream level is progressing into the area today.  Upper level winds have increased and the surface winds are quite strong too.  This is a strong wind shear environment and is supportive of severe storms in the Ozarks.

As is typical in “cool season” set-ups like this, the amount of unstable air is in question.  But experience has shown that as long as the proportions of shear and instability are correct, severe storms can flurish.

At this point, it looks like storms will slowly develop over the Ozarks starting around 4 pm. Those with the greatest potential be become severe early on should be in the vicinity of the MO/KS/AR/OK borders where instability will be maximized.  This is also the area where the storms will start out isolated (discrete, non-linear)

Eventually, the storms will begin to form lines and progress eastward over the Ozarks.  With such strong winds near the surface, an isolated tornado threat is real with any supercell storms.

Tornado Probability Within a 25 mi Circle

Everyone should monitor the weather carefully today as small-scale changes in the timing of features and the development of pockets of unstable air could alter the intensity of these storms.

The strong cold front that everyone is aware of will begin to speed up this evening and slide through the Ozarks after the midnight hour.  I will have a separate post regarding this front and what it will do to our Thanksgiving Day weather!

Latest Thanksgiving Weather Outlook

10:51 am in Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

Computer Model Temperature Plots

Cold weather is coming!  This isn’t in question really as the cold front has been very consistent showing up on the long range computer models.

While it still appears an arctic front will progress through the Ozarks in short order late Wednesday or early Thursday, it is always worth watching carefully especially since enough cold air is in supply to produce winter precipitation.

Experience dictates watching to see if “waves” of precipitation will develop along this cold front. A wave essentially means a slowing and kinking of a front.

In the meantime, there is a weaker front forecast to slip through on Monday.  This feature may support some showers or perhaps even a thunderstorm as it passes through.

Warm air returns on Wednesday with the arctic front due in Wednesday night.  As you can see on the inserted graph, lows will be dipping down close to twenty degrees by Friday morning!  The high temperature is expected to be just above freezing on Thanksgiving day.

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