Meteorologist Ted Keller posted this in
Extreme Weather, Forecast Discussion, Tropics on
September 7th, 2010
Rain Path of Erin 2007
Tropical Storm Hermine came ashore near south Texas last night and now the task of figuring out where the heavy rain arc will end up begins!
First off, the projected track looks a bit like that taken by the remnants of tropical storm Erin back in August of 2007. That particular system activated rain over southwest Missouri and produced just shy of a foot of rain in Miller, MO (Lawrence County).
Hermine is projected to pass west of Springfield proper and this is where the heaviest rain is forecast to fall on Thursday. The official Hydrological Prediction Center forecast of precipitation includes 3-4″ totals in an arc including western and central Missouri.
- 5 Day Rain Forecast
Unforunately, the rain is projected into an area which has had plenty on average from late spring through the summer. The dry areas in the Ozarks are along the Missouri/Arkansas border, especially the more east you head.
Meteorologist Ted Keller posted this in
Extreme Weather, Forecast Discussion on
September 6th, 2010
Visible Satellite of Hermine
As tropical storm Hermine moves along the extreme western Gulf of Mexico, the main question for the Ozarks is: will this storm spike our rain totals to the extreme later this week? In light of the extreme rains of Wednesday and Thursday of last week, this question is certainly on the minds of many.
The official National Hurricane Center forecast has the remnants of Hermine in Oklahoma by Thursday morning. This will end up being a heavy rain producer wherever it ends up tracking so the question is how close to the Ozarks will this rain bulls-eye get?
The morning computer model runs are somewhat split. One (NAM) favors a slower, more westward track with 2-3″ totals while another model (GFS) has a more widespread heavy rain for the Ozarks in the range of 3-4″. Both models seem to want to keep the heaviest rain west-north of Springfield starting on Thursday afternoon.
 NAM 12hr Precip Ending 7 pm Thursday |
 GFS 12hr Precip, Same Time |
Meteorologist Ted Keller posted this in
Forecast Discussion on
September 1st, 2010
Radar at 6 am Wednesday
Rain looks healthy for Wednesday and Thursday in the Ozarks, to the tune of several inches!
A front will be propelled near the Ozarks which will aid in the development of rain and storms today. The rain seems to be aimed at areas more to the north and east of Springfield but everyone could get some rain.
Another band of impressive rain arrives along a stronger cool front which will slide through Thursday night.
This will all lead to rain totals of 2 or even 3 inches, aimed again at areas more to the north of Springfield.
Meteorologist Ted Keller posted this in
Forecast Discussion on
August 30th, 2010
Rainfall Through Saturday AM
We are finally in for some rain in the Ozarks later this week! Portions of the Ozarks are classified as being in a moderate drought.
The chances come in the form of scattered showers and storms over the next few days, fueled by and increase in humidity and the subsequent unstable air.
Later in the week, a front will drop closer to and eventually move through the Ozarks. This should boost the rain amount and coverage somewhat.
We have had a dry spell of weather. Springfield has seen 1.53″ of rain in August, down 1.70″ when compared to normal. We have as of today gone 15 days without measureable rain.
But Springfield and areas to the north are faring better than areas along the Misosuri/Arkansas border which are classified as excessively dry. Oregon County is actually in moderate drought along with Washington County AR.
The forecast is for the heaviest rains to fall on average away from the driest areas. Still, much of the area could pick up an inch of rain before the cool front shuts things down by Friday.
Meteorologist Ted Keller posted this in
Forecast Discussion, The Ozarks on
August 24th, 2010
Weather Map for 7am Wednesday
A front will move through the Ozarks today delivering the coolest air since the middle of May!
The first few days of Springfield Public School classes will start out fantastically! The humidity as of late had already backed off. Now, a front will drop temperatures and humidity levels even more!
The Ozarks will experience highs in the eighties for the next several days will overnight lows become downright chilly by recent standards, dropping into the fifties!
These cool fronts become more common toward fall as upper level jet stream winds begin to assert more influence over the U.S., pulling at chilly air masses up north and bringing them into the central U.S.
Meteorologist Ted Keller posted this in
Forecast Discussion on
August 21st, 2010
Forecast 500 mb Flow Tuesday Evening
A pattern more supportive of sending cool fronts into the central U.S. seems to be developing over the next 10 days or so.
The one with the most going for it is slated to arrive late Tuesday. This front is being driven by a strong dip in the jet stream flow traveling across the central U.S. this week.
If all goes according to forecast, highs should only reach into the eighties Wednesday and Thursday and perhaps Friday as well.
Lows have a shot at dropping into the fifties Thursday morning and also Friday.
This system does not at this point look like much of a rain-maker.
August has been dry, especially east of Springfield with a moderate drought occurring from Howell and Oregon counties east into the boot-heel.
But the cooler and drier air will be a great break from what has been a pretty hot summer, one which will likely rank in the top ten hottest on record.
Forecast Temperature Thursday 7am
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