Meteorologist Ted Keller posted this in Forecast Discussion on November 17th, 2010
It’s about a week out but I can start making some reasonable speculations regarding the weather starting on Wednesday and going through the Thanksgiving holiday.
In the period leading up to Wednesday, a big travel day, warm conditions will prevail over the Ozarks. It appears as if a cool front does try to nudge its way into the area on Tuesday. Computer models want to stall this front just south of the area by Wednesday. There will be a large zone of temperature change north-south over the Ozarks on Wednesday. While we will be on the cool side of the front, it doesn’t look like the coldest of the arctic air will be in our area. Read: the front or any precipitation that forms behind it or as it advances back to the north should remain liquid.
Now, an upper air storm is forecast to move over this front by Thanksgiving. This has the effect of producing low pressure and also drawing down arctic air. The placement and arrival of arctic air has been in speculation for quite some time. Presently, waves along the front as it lies to the south and east of the Ozarks may be enough to spread precipitation into the Ozarks. There might be enough cold air in place by then to support winter precipitation.
My view of it now is to prepare for some showers or even a thunderstorm Monday/Tuesday, followed by cooler conditions through Thanksgiving. We should keep an eye on how far south the cold air penetrates and on the details of the upper levels on Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
These are all based on long range forecasts which have varying degrees of reliability. I’ll keep you posted. FYI: it is way to early to confirm any type of storm!
A “clipper” low is one which comes out of the northwest over the central U.S. Besides being fun to say, clipper lows are usually fast-moving (the name) and don’t normally produce a lot of precipitation.
We have a clipper coming toward Missouri/Arkansas by mid-week. It’s main effect will be to spread light precipitation in the form of rain over the state. It is not uncommon for such systems to lay down winter precipitation north of their track provided enough cold air is available.
Wednesday’s clipper might have enough chilly air coming in behind it to produce some light winter precipitation in northern Missouri. It is unlikely to deliver a snow like last Saturdays’ in Iowa and Minnesota but a rain/snow mix is not impossible along with some minor snow accumulation.
Latest computer models suggest up to a half inch of rain may fall over portions of the Ozarks with most areas getting much less on Wednesday and Wednesday evening.
Meteorologist Ted Keller posted this in Forecast Discussion on October 28th, 2010
A freeze warning is in effect for all of the Ozarks tonight as temperatures plummet into the twenties in some places.
High pressure will settle in Friday morning. The timing is such that the center of the high will be right over the Ozarks during the coldest portion of the night.
Temperatures will be cold enough to pronounce this a killing freeze for sensitive plants.
The cold air is flowing in as a response to air circulating around the intense low earlier in the week. Radiational cooling near the ground will finish the temperature fall tonight.
Once this high moves off, the timing of much warmer air appears to be fantastic for the upcoming weekend. High temperatures on both Saturday and Sunday will be either in or close to seventy degrees!
Meteorologist Ted Keller posted this in Forecast Discussion on October 27th, 2010
Temperature Plot. Large differences Friday AM!
It looks like Friday morning will be the coldest of the season so far but how cold and will it be the killing freeze of the season?
This is a radiational cooling freeze meaning the air will be much colder at the ground than it is aloft. Radiational cooling takes place every night as heat radiation escapes from the earth and the air on contact with this colder ground in turn cools off. Radiation cooling works best under clear and calm conditions. This describes a high pressure system to a tee and that is exactly what will park itself over the Ozarks Friday morning.
There are differences between the various computer models as to how cold to make the low Friday morning. One has our readings at or just above freezing while another sends our temperatures down into the middle twenties!
With plenty of dry air in place, I’ll split the difference and went with a low in Springfield around thirty. There easily could be lows in the twenties in the area Friday morning.
The area in blue has been identified as a possible weather watch area. It might be a tornado watch. I’ll update this during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Storms are trying to form over eastern Kansas and would move northeast through the afternoon. A warm front in the possible watch area may promote some storms to severe weather producers.
A flash flood watch has been issued by the National Weather Service for tonight across all of the Missouri portion of the Ozarks.
An approaching front will deliver a line of thunderstorms to the area later this evening. Also, a scattered storm or two this afternoon could cause locally heavy rainfall. General rain totals of one to two inches can be expected in areas northwest of Springfield.
It’s about a week out but I can start making some reasonable speculations regarding the weather starting on Wednesday and going through the Thanksgiving holiday.
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