Ceaseless Wind

An approaching upper level storms will drive a front through the Ozarks early Saturday. Out ahead of this feature, the air is humid and unstable and this will lead to thunderstorm development. Some storms will produce severe weather including a slight tornado risk.

The initial severe weather threat will be out in Kansas.  This is the best chance for supercell storms and a possible tornado by late afternoon.

Later, the storms will begin to merge a bit and damaging winds will become a factor.

Also, rainfall between 1 and 2 inches will be possible over areas of western Missouri back into eastern Kansas.

There will likely be a few scattered storms by late afternoon in the area.  They may produce isolated severe weather but will probably remain multicell due to weak wind shear in the area.  A line of storms will then form to our northwest in Kansas and do the typical slide into our area during the late evening.

I will have the latest on developing thunderstorms on KOLR news at 5 o’clock!

A cool front will be appraoching the area by Saturday.

Ahead of this front, temperatures will recover on Friday to near normal while humidity will run a tad high. For this reason and the overall strength of the upper level winds, severe weather is forecast for much of eastern Kansas and western and northwestern Missouri for Friday. The northwest portion of the Ozarks are included in this slight risk area. The timing is such that the storms should be weakening as they come in from the west Friday evening.

There is an area over west-central Missouri along a WNW-ESE  stationary front which I’ll watch.  It is in an area of backed surface winds but on the edge of the best bulk shear and instability. Hmm…

On Saturday, the line of storms may add an additional 1.5″ to rain totals to the northwest of Springfield.

Radar Rain Estimate 7am

The rain has arrived! The highest so far: 1-3 inches in McDonald, Newton and Barry counties in Missouri.

Heavier southward where 1.5 to 4″ inches may have fallen since last night.

Springfield has had .65″ from last night to 7 am this morning.

Included is the rain forecast from the Hydrological Prediction Center for the six hours starting at 7 am today.

All of the counties in northwest Arkansas are under a flash flood warning. More updates later today

HPC Rain Forecast 7am-1pm Thursday

Rain Path of Erin 2007

Tropical Storm Hermine came ashore near south Texas last night and now the task of figuring out where the heavy rain arc will end up begins!

First off, the projected track looks a bit like that taken by the remnants of tropical storm Erin back in August of 2007.  That particular system activated rain over southwest Missouri and produced just shy of a foot of rain in Miller, MO (Lawrence County).

Hermine is projected to pass west of Springfield proper and this is where the heaviest rain is forecast to fall on Thursday.  The official Hydrological Prediction Center forecast of precipitation includes 3-4″ totals in an arc including western and central Missouri.

5 Day Rain Forecast

 Unforunately, the rain is projected into an area which has had plenty on average from late spring through the summer.  The dry areas in the Ozarks are along the Missouri/Arkansas border, especially the more east you head.

Visible Satellite of Hermine

As tropical storm Hermine moves along the extreme western Gulf of Mexico, the main question for the Ozarks is: will this storm spike our rain totals to the extreme later this week? In light of the extreme rains of Wednesday and Thursday of last week, this question is certainly on the minds of many.

The official National Hurricane Center forecast has the remnants of Hermine in Oklahoma by Thursday morning.  This will end up being a heavy rain producer wherever it ends up tracking so the question is how close to the Ozarks will this rain bulls-eye get?

The morning computer model runs are somewhat split.  One (NAM) favors a slower, more westward track with 2-3″ totals while another model (GFS) has a more widespread heavy rain for the Ozarks in the range of 3-4″. Both models seem to want to keep the heaviest rain west-north of Springfield starting on Thursday afternoon.

NAM 12hr Precip Ending 7 pm Thursday

GFS 12hr Precip, Same Time

Radar at 6 am Wednesday

Rain looks healthy for Wednesday and Thursday in the Ozarks, to the tune of several inches!

A front will be propelled near the Ozarks which will aid in the development of rain and storms today.  The rain seems to be aimed at areas more to the north and east of Springfield but everyone could get some rain.

Another band of impressive rain arrives along a stronger cool front which will slide through Thursday night.

This will all lead to rain totals of 2 or even 3 inches, aimed again at areas more to the north of Springfield.