Ceaseless Wind

SPC Mesoscale Discussion

From the SPC:

 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

“A PRE-FRONTAL LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI/ LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION…TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD UPPER TROUGH  ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  AS THIS
   OCCURS…DESTABILIZATION AND FORCING ALONG THIS FEATURE APPEARS  LIKELY TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE  DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER AREA…WHERE MERGING/CONSOLIDATING STORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ONE EXPANDING STORM CLUSTER IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.  FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERN PORTION OF LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH SHIFTING WITHIN BROADER SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
   ACROSS THE REGION MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER GROWING STORM CLUSTER ACROSS  SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY.  AS THIS OCCURS…AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD POOLS DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN MOMENTUM/SHEAR  ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB SPEED MAXIMUM WILL  PROBABLY EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
   BY EARLY EVENING.  UNTIL THIS OCCURS…THE RISK FOR FREQUENT CLOUD  TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST…ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN.”

Radar at About Noon

Louisville, KY flood report

Pictures of flooding

Radar at left at about noon showing more heavy downpours coming into Louisville later this afternoon.  Louisville is on the right, symbols on image are morning flood reports.

Memphis Tornadic Supercell

A tornadic supercell tracked over downtown Memphis this afternoon, Thursday, July 30th, 2009.  The image shown is a radar shot at 4:48.  A tornado marker shows up between Bartlett and Cordova.  The cell track is also indicated.  Other supercells were in the area.

0432 PM     TORNADO          4 E DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS     TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR I-240 AND SOUTH PARKWAY.  ALSO
            LIMBS ON EXPRESSWAY.

0451 PM     TORNADO                TORNADO ON GROUND JUST SOUTH OF I-40 ON GERMANTOWN
            PARKWAY. DAMAGE TO CAR DEALERSHIP AND RESTAURANT.

0500 PM     TORNADO               BRIEF TOUCHDOWN 1 MILE SOUTH OF FAIRHAVEN MISSISSIPPI.
            ALSO POWER POLES DOWN.

0501 PM     TORNADO                   TORNADO SOUTH OF RTE 78 NEAR HIGHWAY 305. CARS
            OVERTURNED.

0502 PM     TORNADO                      TORNADO ON GROUND NEAR HACKS CROSS ROAD AND RTE 78.

6-10 Day Temperature Forecast

The jet stream pattern which has provided us with cooler air and frequent rain shots looks as if it will back off a bit by next week.  This week was spent watching this pattern, which had been focusing on the northeast and Great Lake states, gradually deepen and shift westward.

This resulted in a continuous run of cool weather and frequent visits by fronts providing rain and storm chances.  The pattern will still be very much in effect through thr weekend with yet another front riding through the area late Saturday.

Now next week, an area of hot weather to our southwest will expand eastward into the plains and begin to heat us up.  Nineties will likely return, possibily as early as Tuesday, and might last the week.

The rain pattern will establish itself to our north and east once again as the possibility of  ”backdoor cool fronts”  (those that back in from the east) returns to the region.

I’ve been working to load up my YouTube page with storm chase videos.  Some of the footage from this year is in HD.  You’ll see stuff from 2004, the MSU chase class back in June and much more. 

The videos are sorted by the drop-down menu above or you can just go to WeathermanTed on YouTube.  Keep checking in for more!