The jet stream is increasing out over the Great Plains and this will help to drive organized severe storms eastward today from Kansas into Missouri. Some of these storms could be severe by the time they reach the Ozarks later tonight.
The SPC has a slight risk of severe storms in an area just northwest and north of Springfield.
The overall wind shear is favorable for supercell thunderstorms out west in Kansas. While a warm air cap is always a concern, the forcing involved with the front and jet stream should be enough to overcome the cap in at least a few areas.
The storms east of Springfield in Howell, Shannon and Dent Counties will continue to move east. Meanwhile, showers and storms are developing near the approaching system in Kansas and this will continue to grow into the slight risk area today.
The rain bulls-eye will occur over northern and central Missouri. Storms should show a tendency to fill back to the southwest later this evening and these will be the heaviest the Ozarks see this evening and overnight.
The jet stream is marginal for supercells but a few could develop. Hail is not a large threat due to high freezing levels but damaging winds are a real possibility with some storms in the risk area. Tornadoes are not a huge risk but any supercell that does develop will have to be watched. The greatest risk would be near the Kansas City area and eastern Kansas early this evening.
A cluster of thunderstorms which started in Kansas Saturday evening, crossed into Missouri and left a swath of wind damage!
The bowing refers to the shape of the mini line of storms as it advances. This is shown clearly in the embedded loop of radar from early Sunday morning (below).
This line produced scattered wind damage reports from southern Crawford County in Kansas into Dade and eventually Greene County. There were lots of reports of small limbs down and outdoor objects such as potted plants “displaced”. The Springfield National Weather Service reported a wind gust to 51 ph at 2:10 am. There were likely some severe wind gusts (59 mph or higher ) with this storm line. Several minor power outages were reported with this storm line as well.
Storm Reports Collected by the National Weather Service
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT…SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
633 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010..TIME… …EVENT… …CITY LOCATION… …LAT.LON…
.DATE… ….MAG…. ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
..REMARKS..1224 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 SW FRONTENAC 37.41N 94.73W
08/15/2010 CRAWFORD KS LAW ENFORCEMENT FRONT PORCH PULLED FROM HOUSE. TIME ESTIMATED.1224 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 S PITTSBURG 37.38N 94.70W
08/15/2010 CRAWFORD KS LAW ENFORCEMENT FOUR TREES REPORTED DOWN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF PITTSBURG.
TIME ESTIMATED.0140 AM TSTM WND GST LOCKWOOD 37.39N 93.95W
08/15/2010 E60.00 MPH DADE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUST ESTIMATED BY DEPUTY IN THE CITY OF
LOCKWOOD.0140 AM TSTM WND GST GREENFIELD 37.42N 93.84W
08/15/2010 E60.00 MPH DADE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUST ESTIMATED AT THE DADE EOC.0145 AM TSTM WND DMG GREENFIELD 37.42N 93.84W
08/15/2010 DADE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN GREENFIELD…A FEW WITH A DIAMETER
UP TO 18 INCHES.
0145 AM TSTM WND DMG LOCKWOOD 37.39N 93.85W
08/15/2010 DADE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
TWO TREES DOWN ACROSS THE ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
HIGHWAYS 160 AND 39.
0200 AM TSTM WND GST EVERTON 37.34N 93.70W
08/15/2010 E60.00 MPH DADE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED BY SPOTTER IN EVERTON.
0210 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SSE WILLARD 37.23N 93.40W
08/15/2010 M51.00 MPH GREENE MO OFFICIAL NWS OBS
51 MPH WIND GUST WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD OF MAIN
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS.
0217 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NIXA 37.04N 93.29W
08/15/2010 E50.00 MPH CHRISTIAN MO AMATEUR RADIO
50 MPH WIND GUST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.
0255 AM TSTM WND DMG SSE STRAFFORD 37.27N 93.12W
08/15/2010 GREENE MO AMATEUR RADIO
10 FOOT SECTION OF WOOD FENCING BLOWN DOWN…A FEW TREE
LIMBS UP TO THREE INCHES IN DIAMETER BLOWN DOWN. TIME
ESTIMATED.
0258 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 WNW FAIR GROVE 37.39N 93.19W
08/15/2010 GREENE MO AMATEUR RADIO
FOUR INCH DIAMETER DOGWOOD TREE BLOWN DOWN.
0300 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 N STRAFFORD 37.29N 93.12W
08/15/2010 GREENE MO AMATEUR RADIO
14 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE. PART OF FARM
ROAD 84 BLOCKED IN THIS AREA.
0318 AM NON-TSTM WND GST AVA 36.95N 92.66W
08/15/2010 M38.00 MPH DOUGLAS MO AMATEUR RADIO
38 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PASSAGE.
FLAG POLE AT AVA POLICE DEPARTMENT BLOWN DOWN.
The National Weather Service has confirmed that the tornado which touched down in North Dakota and traveled east into Wilken County, Minnesota on Saturday was rated a low end EF4. This means the storm had estimated peak winds of 170-175 mph.
This was one of several tornadoes which touched down in Minnesota, North Dakota and Wisconsin on Saturday evening.
This area was slammed by a violent tornado outbreak on June 17th of this year. A complete report on that outbreak can be found here.
One tornado on Saturday was caught on tape by a storm chaser crossing a road and then destroying a building. According to the National Weather Service, about 14 buildings were destroyed by this twister.
This was outbreak of tornadoes with one predominate storm, the long-tracked supercell which struck Yazoo City, MS.
The track of the main tornado with this cell has been measured atjust over 149 miles in Mississippi. This storm did produce additional tornadoes in Mississippi and after it tracked into Alabama. The surveys are still preliminary from all of the affected National Weather Service offcies. The official report on the first tornado out of the Jackson, MS National Weather Service office can be found here.
Portions of the Ozarks were affected back on February 5th, 2008 by the end of a very long-track tornado, the longest in recent history.
Outbreaks like this and long-track tornadoes are fairly rare. It takes a list of parameters to line up in space and time just right to produce this type of weather. One little thing, such as another thunderstorm forming or slight differences in the the wind or instability along the path of the storm can break the situation down and cause tornadoes to break up.
Radar at 10:45 am. Yellow area is the severe thunderstorm watch.
A line of broken storms in a bowing segment is presently in central and eastern Missouri. This line is expected to continue to move southeastward affecting mostly eastern Missouri but might have an impact in the Lake of the Ozarks region and also in the Waynesville, Rolla, Salem and Houston, Missouri areas by noon and into the early and middle afternoon hours. A severe thunderstorm watch was just hoisted for that area.
The rest of the Ozarks will continue in the excessive heat today and for much of the week. Storms will flow over the top and slide east of this dome of hot air which means they may occasionally affect portions of the Ozarks mostly those closer to central and eastern Missouri.
I will have a complete report on the progress of these storms and on the heat on KOLR-10 at 5, 6 & 10 pm!
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