Ceaseless Wind

Wichita Hail by Jim Weber

Link to the Wichita NWS report

Some of the hail video I’ve saved under Favorites in my YouTube account.

Radar Rain Estimate at 8:15 pm

A flash flood watch is in effect for a good chuck of the Missouri portion of the Ozarks for the rest of the night.

Severe storms over Kansas are forming a line which will produce heavy rain. Hardest hit will be areas northwest of Springfield in Barton and St. Clair counties which have received some heavy rain already today (see radar rain estimation).

Flash Flood Watch in Green

Also, the Storm Prediction Center has scaled down the threat of tornadoes into a small corner of southeast Kansas and just a sliver of southwest Missouri touching the Joplin area.  A severe thunderstorm watch is not out of the question into the wee hours of the morning for a chunk of the Ozarks. ADMIN NOTE: Severe thunderstorm watch was posted.

Wichita radar at 6:30 pm 9/15/10

Well, let’s start with the straight-line wind damage in Rogersville!  Around 4:30, radar estimated wind gusts to around 70 mph did extensive wind damage to trees and some power lines.  Power outages where reported.

Meanwhile, several rounds of rain fell on areas of  Vernon and St. Clair counties earlier today.  More heavy rain is on tap for these areas later this evening and tonight.  People should be on the lookout for flash flooding in these counties.  A flash flood watch was hoisted for much of southwest and west Missouri tonight.

Wichita Hail by Jim Weber

Finally, massive supercell storms forming in south-central Kansas have dumped baseball-size (larger?) hail in and around Wichita.  Several of these storms are tornado warned at this writing around 6:35 pm.  I believe the storms more westward will form a line of storms later this evening.  One storm in Greenwood County, KS will be watched this evening to see if it retains its supercell form to the Missouri border.

Radar at 1:25 pm

Good news, the tornado threat, what there was, has lessened but a severe thunderstorm watch may be in the works for this afternoon.

Morning storms have changed the environment across much of the Ozarks to lessen the tornado threat. The 5% area ala the SPC is now in Kansas. There is still a marginal (2%) threat for the area.

The storms in question are now approaching Vernon and St Clair counties. This area is under a flash flood warning from morning storms and this additional rainfall could lead to some high water in spots.

A severe thunderstorm watch may be hoisted for a large portion of southwest Missouri shortly as this storm area continues to move ESE. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts are the main threat.

Be sure to watch for updates on KOLR News at 5, 6 & 10 and Ozarks Fox News at 9 pm tonight for the latest!

The Storm Prediction Center has put a portion of the Ozarks in a risk for severe thunderstorms today. There is a measureable tornado risk.

The threat area is mainly north of the yellow slight risk line shown on the enclosed map. This map also shows the higher (5%) tornado risk in purple. Ongoing storms and flash flood warnings as of 10:35 am are also indicated.

The current storms will continue to track east with locally heavy rain totals the main calling card. They are expected to weaken somewhat.

Later this afternoon, more storms will build in the same area as the heat and instability build.  The current area of storms will leave behind cooler and stable air but also a boundary for which future storms can interact.  This area would also be subject to the return of more unstable air later this afternoon and evening.

Weather Watch Soon?

The area in blue has been identified as a possible weather watch area. It might be a tornado watch. I’ll update this during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Storms are trying to form over eastern Kansas and would move northeast through the afternoon.  A warm front in the possible watch area may promote some storms to severe weather producers.