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Today’s Severe Weather Risk

10:47 am in Extreme Weather, Forecast Discussion, Severe Storms, The Ozarks by Ted Keller

An approaching upper level storms will drive a front through the Ozarks early Saturday. Out ahead of this feature, the air is humid and unstable and this will lead to thunderstorm development. Some storms will produce severe weather including a slight tornado risk.

The initial severe weather threat will be out in Kansas.  This is the best chance for supercell storms and a possible tornado by late afternoon.

Later, the storms will begin to merge a bit and damaging winds will become a factor.

Also, rainfall between 1 and 2 inches will be possible over areas of western Missouri back into eastern Kansas.

There will likely be a few scattered storms by late afternoon in the area.  They may produce isolated severe weather but will probably remain multicell due to weak wind shear in the area.  A line of storms will then form to our northwest in Kansas and do the typical slide into our area during the late evening.

I will have the latest on developing thunderstorms on KOLR news at 5 o’clock!

Approaching Front

5:10 pm in Forecast Discussion, Severe Storms by Ted Keller

A cool front will be appraoching the area by Saturday.

Ahead of this front, temperatures will recover on Friday to near normal while humidity will run a tad high. For this reason and the overall strength of the upper level winds, severe weather is forecast for much of eastern Kansas and western and northwestern Missouri for Friday. The northwest portion of the Ozarks are included in this slight risk area. The timing is such that the storms should be weakening as they come in from the west Friday evening.

There is an area over west-central Missouri along a WNW-ESE  stationary front which I’ll watch.  It is in an area of backed surface winds but on the edge of the best bulk shear and instability. Hmm…

On Saturday, the line of storms may add an additional 1.5″ to rain totals to the northwest of Springfield.

Video Clips of the Dallas/Seagoville, TX Tornadoes, 9/8/2010

7:45 pm in Extreme Weather, Severe Storms by Ted Keller

Footage of a tornado passing through west Dallas, TX late this afternoon.

Severe Storms Tonight?

9:54 am in Forecast Discussion, Severe Storms by Ted Keller

 

Severe Storms for Friday

The jet stream is increasing out over the Great Plains and this will help to drive organized severe storms eastward today from Kansas into Missouri.  Some of these storms could be severe by the time they reach the Ozarks later tonight.

The SPC has a slight risk of severe storms in an area just northwest and north of Springfield. 

The overall wind shear is favorable for supercell thunderstorms out west in Kansas.  While a warm air cap is always a concern, the forcing involved with the front and jet stream should be enough to overcome the cap in at least a few areas. 

The storms east of Springfield in Howell, Shannon and Dent Counties will continue to move east.  Meanwhile, showers and storms are developing near the approaching system in Kansas and this will continue to grow into the slight risk area today.

The rain bulls-eye will occur over northern and central Missouri.  Storms should show a tendency to fill back to the southwest later this evening and these will be the heaviest the Ozarks see this evening and overnight.

The jet stream is marginal for supercells but a few could develop.  Hail is not a large threat due to high freezing levels but damaging winds are a real possibility with some storms in the risk area.  Tornadoes are not a huge risk but any supercell that does develop will have to be watched.  The greatest risk would be near the Kansas City area and eastern Kansas early this evening.

A Mini Bowing Thunderstorm Line

10:13 am in Extreme Weather, Storm Summaries, The Ozarks by Ted Keller

Storm Reports as of 10:35 Sunday

A cluster of thunderstorms which started in Kansas Saturday evening, crossed into Missouri and left a swath of wind damage!

The bowing refers to the shape of the mini line of storms as it advances. This is shown clearly in the embedded loop of radar from early Sunday morning (below).

This line produced scattered wind damage reports from southern Crawford County in Kansas into Dade and eventually Greene County.  There were lots of reports of small limbs down and outdoor objects such as potted plants “displaced”.  The Springfield National Weather Service reported a wind gust to 51 ph at 2:10 am.  There were likely some severe wind gusts (59 mph or higher ) with this storm line.  Several minor power outages were reported with this storm line as well.

Storm Reports Collected by the National Weather Service

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT…SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
633 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010
..TIME…   …EVENT…      …CITY LOCATION…     …LAT.LON…
.DATE…   ….MAG….      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
            ..REMARKS..1224 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW FRONTENAC          37.41N 94.73W
08/15/2010                   CRAWFORD           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT
            FRONT PORCH PULLED FROM HOUSE. TIME ESTIMATED.1224 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S PITTSBURG           37.38N 94.70W
08/15/2010                   CRAWFORD           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT
            FOUR TREES REPORTED DOWN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF PITTSBURG.
            TIME ESTIMATED.0140 AM     TSTM WND GST     LOCKWOOD                37.39N 93.95W
08/15/2010  E60.00 MPH       DADE               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT
            50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUST ESTIMATED BY DEPUTY IN THE CITY OF
            LOCKWOOD.0140 AM     TSTM WND GST     GREENFIELD              37.42N 93.84W
08/15/2010  E60.00 MPH       DADE               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUST ESTIMATED AT THE DADE EOC.0145 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENFIELD              37.42N 93.84W
08/15/2010                   DADE               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT
            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN GREENFIELD…A FEW WITH A DIAMETER
            UP TO 18 INCHES.

0145 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LOCKWOOD                37.39N 93.85W
08/15/2010                   DADE               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO TREES DOWN ACROSS THE ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            HIGHWAYS 160 AND 39.

0200 AM     TSTM WND GST     EVERTON                 37.34N 93.70W
08/15/2010  E60.00 MPH       DADE               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED BY SPOTTER IN EVERTON.

0210 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SSE WILLARD           37.23N 93.40W
08/15/2010  M51.00 MPH       GREENE             MO   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            51 MPH WIND GUST WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD OF MAIN
            COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS.

0217 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST NIXA                    37.04N 93.29W
08/15/2010  E50.00 MPH       CHRISTIAN          MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            50 MPH WIND GUST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OUTFLOW
            BOUNDARY.

0255 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SSE STRAFFORD           37.27N 93.12W
08/15/2010                   GREENE             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            10 FOOT SECTION OF WOOD FENCING BLOWN DOWN…A FEW TREE
            LIMBS UP TO THREE INCHES IN DIAMETER BLOWN DOWN. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

0258 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW FAIR GROVE        37.39N 93.19W
08/15/2010                   GREENE             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            FOUR INCH DIAMETER DOGWOOD TREE BLOWN DOWN.

0300 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N STRAFFORD           37.29N 93.12W
08/15/2010                   GREENE             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            14 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE. PART OF FARM
            ROAD 84 BLOCKED IN THIS AREA.

0318 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST AVA                     36.95N 92.66W
08/15/2010  M38.00 MPH       DOUGLAS            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            38 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PASSAGE.
            FLAG POLE AT AVA POLICE DEPARTMENT BLOWN DOWN.

Minnesota Tornado Throws a Pickup Truck One Half Mile!

2:16 pm in Extreme Weather, In the News, Severe Storms by Ted Keller

Storm Reports of Saturday, August 7, 2010

The National Weather Service has confirmed that the tornado which touched down in North Dakota and traveled east into Wilken County, Minnesota on Saturday was rated a low end EF4.  This means the storm had estimated peak winds of  170-175 mph.

The link to the National Weather Service assessment of the damage.

This was one of several tornadoes which touched down in Minnesota, North Dakota and Wisconsin on Saturday evening.

This area was slammed by a violent tornado outbreak on June 17th of this year.  A complete report on that outbreak can be found here.

One tornado on Saturday was caught on tape by a storm chaser crossing a road and then destroying a building.  According to the National Weather Service, about 14 buildings were destroyed by this twister.

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