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Heading Out on a Chase

10:44 am in Forecast Discussion, Storm Chase Discussion, Storm Chasing by Ted Keller

It does looking increasingly likely that I will be heading out on a storm chase Saturday.  Target area from this vantage point would be western Kansas northward into extreme southern South Dakota.  Now, this event is 84 hours out to I expect to adjust this area several times of course.

The overall set up is a large trough in the western U.S. this weekend and an abundance of moisture and instability.  Most of the impressive instability will likely be capped over much of the Great Plains.  All hinges on whether the jet stream can infringe enough eastward into the instability.  Shortwave features will play a role in dryline maintenance and movement.  The flow is a bit meridional too but this may be resolved somewhat by as yet unseen shortwave features.

Many of you know I am offering opportunities to storm chase in a short-fuse, weekend type situation.  Please look on the Ceaseless Wind website if you are interested!  If you have a desire to do this but are unsure of some things, e-mail me ted@ceaselesswind.com and we can talk about it in private. 

Also, don’t forget about “Upstream”, my live web show at 6:30 tonight and every weeknight.  We will likely have ongoing severe storms to discuss in Oklahoma and I will also be updating the weekend chase situation as well.

Severe Weather Monday

10:27 am in Forecast Discussion, Severe Storms, Storm Chase Discussion, Storm Chasing by Ted Keller

Severe Outlook for Monday

This has been holding together for a few days now in the computer model forecasts so confidence is running higher that an outbreak of storms will occur over the central Great Plains Monday.

There has been some fluctuation in the position of the dry line which defines the western edge of the threat area,  If it ends up over central portions of Oklahoma and Kansas, the Ozarks would see whatever supercell thunderstorms do develop move into the area later that evening.

One computer model  (NAM) from 12z Friday has pushed the dryline back westward after trending more east the past few runs.  The GFS model is sticking with an “I-35″ (or thereabout) solution which is more east.

Since the event is still 78-84 hours away, there will likely be more adjusting of the position east or west.

The differences are arising because the speed and position of the shortwave trough are radically different between the NAM and GFS computer model!  I posted the images below.  This will make a HUGE difference in where the threat area ends up!  This position will shore up as soon as we get closer to Monday and the shortwave “comes ashore” to be sampled better by upper air measurements.

My friends Matt Gingery and Jill Gilardi will be out chasing on a special project starting Monday.  What a way to kick things off!  I wish them luck and safe travels!

I will be doing a special “Upstream” broadcast on Sunday evening, most likely after the 00z NAM comes out which will be after 9 pm sometime.  I’ll keep you posted!

NAM 500 mb 7pm MondayGFS 500mb at 7pm Monday

Storm Chase Results from May 1st

10:05 am in Storm Chasing, Storm Summaries by Ted Keller

A high risk for severe thunderstorms and long-tracked tornadoes existed for much of central and eastern Arkansas the afternoon of May 1st, 2010.  I went down there to chase this event.  When storms started firing, there were lots of them, most ended up tornado-warned.  Folks were anticipating the worst.  But in the end, very few tornadoes were produced.

Here’s my account of the chase and a bit about why so few tornadoes occurred on this day despite much anticipation.

We drove down via Willow Springs, MO to see the damage caused by an EF1 tornado Friday evening.  The Hillbilly Junction sustained roof damage as did an antique store just up a hill and to the east.  This was the last of five tornadoes produced by a supercell which started in Boone County, Arkansas.

We were a caravan of three with Dustin Elkins and Bo Hessee also driving.  We eventually wove our way down to White Hall which is just north of Pine Bluff.  Here, other chaser friends of ours had gathered including Dena Sanders and Brian DePriest.  The Tornado Intercept Vehicle (TIV) was there as were other chasers.

Boundary Moving Slowing North This Day

Of much interest early on was the very obvious boundary visible on radar stretching WSW/ENE south of Little Rock.  It was thought that this boundary would be able to supply more focused and localized storm relative helicity to storms forming along it.  Indeed several storms west of Little Rock did appear to have an increase in rotation while crossing this boundary.  But the storm motion was taking them across and not along this feature.  If a storm could have traveled along it, it might have produced the longer-track type of tornado which was feared on this day.

Storms became very numerous in southern Arkansas by the 6 o’clock hour.  In fact, too numerous really.  It became difficult to know which storm to chase!  We initially decided to get northeast of the Arkansas River toward the flat rice lands in and around Stutgartt.  But as supercells became tornado-warned in southern Arkansas, we decided to change the plan, back track a bit and try to get one of the southern storms.  While on the way, storms started firing north and south of Pine Bluff which eventually became tornado-warned.  The decision of the day was to not chase these storms and instead press on to the most southeast of all of the supercells which was going to cross highway 65 near Gould, AR.  The reasons we didn’t pursue the Pine Bluff storms were 1) we would have to travel back through the city of Pine Bluff, 2) the river crossing were limited and 3) there was too much rain, drizzle and just plain bad visibility east of these storms.

Radar Image w/Mesocyclone Indicator at 7:46 pm

So, on down highway 65 we traveled.  We were racing against dark really.  We got into position ahead of the well defined cell which had a great hook echo.  One more adjustment southeast to Gould was required due to the slight right turn the storm (and many supercells) started to take.

We saw some great formations and a likely wall cloud but as the storm passed just to our west, no tornado ever formed.  Reed Timmer and the Dominator crew was coming though Gould and we followed them briefly north chasing the same storm but eventually the chase was abandoned.

I’m waiting on the archived SPC data for this day to appear but I suspect that the reason more tornadoes were not generated on this day were due to low values of low level rotation and generally weaker than needed low level winds.

I am compiled a video log of the chase which should be finished by Thursday.

Major Outbreak Again!

8:19 am in Forecast Discussion, Severe Storms, Storm Chase Discussion by Ted Keller

High Risk Today!

The southeastern U.S. has taken a beating with the storms last Saturday and last night.  Now, another high risk has been posted for the area pictured. 

There is a tremendous amount of moisture as measured by the dew points (colored areas) on the inserted map.  This is poised and ready in the high risk area.  What will likely happen is an increase in south to southeasterly wind flow near the surface later this afternoon and evening.  Another jet stream “max” is coming up out of Texas which will help with the development of a low pressure area over the western portion of the threat area. The winds should respond to this feature.

The computer models have been showing this for a few days but with slightly different results.  The GFS has always been more aggressive with the low development.  The morning run of the NAM has come around on the winds a bit more.  This model is also forecasting 0-3km SRH of 150-300 at 21z (4pm), jumping to 300-350 by 7 pm with these values then expanding over all of eastern Arkansas by after dark.  CAPE is progged at over 2000.

The ongoing cells are likely to been producing severe weather by just after noon in some areas.  This is not the main show!  This is expected by early evening over the high risk area.

I will be out with the Mobile Weather Lab today.  I’ll cross my fingers on live streaming on Severe Studios.

May Day Chase!

9:02 am in Storm Chase Discussion by Ted Keller

Saturday Severe Weather Outlook

It’s very possible I will be heading out east Saturday on a storm chase! If the computer models hold, the target area will be in the Missouri boot heel southward into eastern Arkansas.  Portions of Texas might be at risk as well.

The overall situation is a large upper level trough with two shorter waves (areas of stronger winds/every) rotating through this system.  The first of these waves will possible produce severe weather in the Ozarks Friday.

The second wave will come out into the threat area on Saturday.  It appears is if this feature can induce a weak low pressure system to form immediately to the west of the outlook area.  If this indeed happens, then the threat for significant severe weather will go up!

The 12 run of the NAM is interesting in that it shows an area of rather high EHI’s from northeast Texas to southern Tennesee.

I will update this chase forecast through the week as things can and do change from day to day.  Friday’s severe weather threat is covered in another blog!

Storm Chase Opportunities Monday-Thursday March 8-11

2:53 pm in Forecast Discussion, Storm Chase Discussion by Ted Keller

“Upstream” will have a special show tonight at 8 pm.  This is a live web show with a chat,  join in, and we’ll talk about the upcoming week.

An interesting set of storm chase possibilities exists over the next few days as a general trough of low pressure develops out west with several wind maximums rotating through it.  All model references are to today’s 12 run.

The first is Monday as the first punch of stronger jet stream winds work their way out into the Great Plains.  While the best bulk shear will be west of the maximum instability axis, there does appear to be support for some storms along the dry line from western Oklahoma curving northwest into SW Kansas.  This was the chase of choice for me for many days, especially when the models were showing it more to the east, but the distance as well as the strength/alignment of the various parameters makes me want to abandon this chase for now.

This same shortwave lifts northeast on Tuesday.  A weak surface low follows this feature into eastern Kansas and on this point, both models agree.  There is a cold core signal on this day northeast of the surface low which would include Kansas eastward into central Missouri which would include the northern and western portion of the KOLR/KFSX viewing area.  Of course, the best instability axis would be in the ArkLaTex area southward into eastern Texas.

A second area of maximum winds comes around on Wednesday.  There are differences between the NAM and the GFS with regard to the placement of the surface low by 6 pm Wednesday with the NAM more to the west in eastern Oklahoma.  This can be traced to differences in the placement of the upper level jet max.  This day will need to watched in the Ozarks and points eastward.  The GFS develops an instability axis over southern Illinois while the NAM keeps it over the Ozarks.

NAM Surface/Lifted Index 6 pm Wednesday.

GFS Surface/Lifted Index 6 pm Wednesday.

Ultimately, one cannot ignore the climatological significance of the alignment and strength of the upper level jet Thursday and Friday over the southern and eastern U.S. with progged 90 knot winds at 500 mb and 160 knots at 250 mb Thursday at 6 pm over the Texas and Louisiana.  The air would be unstable enough as forecast ahead of the surface front and curling northeast of the surface low into the Tennessee and Ohio river valleys to produce severe weather.

GFS 500 Winds 6 pm Thursday

GFS Lifted Index 6 pm Thursday

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