Ceaseless Wind

With yesterday’s rain total of 1.58″, our September total jumped to 10.69″. So in one day, we moved from 7th to 4th on the all-time wettest September list for Springfield!

The years ahead of 2010 are 1975, 1986 and 1993 in 3rd, 2nd and 1st.  It would be hard to push into all-time wettest because the 1993 total is 17.46″!  That was the year of the south Ferguson flooding with massive amounts of rain falling in that section of southwest Springfield.

Radar Rain Estimate at 8:15 pm

A flash flood watch is in effect for a good chuck of the Missouri portion of the Ozarks for the rest of the night.

Severe storms over Kansas are forming a line which will produce heavy rain. Hardest hit will be areas northwest of Springfield in Barton and St. Clair counties which have received some heavy rain already today (see radar rain estimation).

Flash Flood Watch in Green

Also, the Storm Prediction Center has scaled down the threat of tornadoes into a small corner of southeast Kansas and just a sliver of southwest Missouri touching the Joplin area.  A severe thunderstorm watch is not out of the question into the wee hours of the morning for a chunk of the Ozarks. ADMIN NOTE: Severe thunderstorm watch was posted.

Radar at 1:25 pm

Good news, the tornado threat, what there was, has lessened but a severe thunderstorm watch may be in the works for this afternoon.

Morning storms have changed the environment across much of the Ozarks to lessen the tornado threat. The 5% area ala the SPC is now in Kansas. There is still a marginal (2%) threat for the area.

The storms in question are now approaching Vernon and St Clair counties. This area is under a flash flood warning from morning storms and this additional rainfall could lead to some high water in spots.

A severe thunderstorm watch may be hoisted for a large portion of southwest Missouri shortly as this storm area continues to move ESE. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts are the main threat.

Be sure to watch for updates on KOLR News at 5, 6 & 10 and Ozarks Fox News at 9 pm tonight for the latest!

The Storm Prediction Center has put a portion of the Ozarks in a risk for severe thunderstorms today. There is a measureable tornado risk.

The threat area is mainly north of the yellow slight risk line shown on the enclosed map. This map also shows the higher (5%) tornado risk in purple. Ongoing storms and flash flood warnings as of 10:35 am are also indicated.

The current storms will continue to track east with locally heavy rain totals the main calling card. They are expected to weaken somewhat.

Later this afternoon, more storms will build in the same area as the heat and instability build.  The current area of storms will leave behind cooler and stable air but also a boundary for which future storms can interact.  This area would also be subject to the return of more unstable air later this afternoon and evening.

This has been a wet month so far just looking at the official stats for Springfield….and they don’t tell the whole story!

Last night’s rains which proved to have legs through all of the Ozarks into the morning hours boosted our official total for September to 9.11″.  This is a ranking of 7th for the month.

But radar estimates and ground truth from portions of southeastern Greene and northern Christian Counties suggest over a foot of rain has fallen in those areas.

More rain is due in the area late Wednesday and early Thursday.  It appears warmer and drier late in the weekend and early next week.

Flash Flood Watch for Tonight

A flash flood watch has been issued by the National Weather Service for tonight across all of the Missouri portion of the Ozarks.

An approaching front will deliver a line of thunderstorms to the area later this evening.  Also, a scattered storm or two this afternoon could cause locally heavy rainfall.  General rain totals of one to two inches can be expected in areas northwest of Springfield.

If the storm line survives more southward, it would begin to overlap areas that received the heaviest rain during Wednesday night and Thursday.

The rainfall projection from the HPC is included.