Tropical Storm Hermine came ashore near south Texas last night and now the task of figuring out where the heavy rain arc will end up begins!
First off, the projected track looks a bit like that taken by the remnants of tropical storm Erin back in August of 2007. That particular system activated rain over southwest Missouri and produced just shy of a foot of rain in Miller, MO (Lawrence County).
Hermine is projected to pass west of Springfield proper and this is where the heaviest rain is forecast to fall on Thursday. The official Hydrological Prediction Center forecast of precipitation includes 3-4″ totals in an arc including western and central Missouri.
5 Day Rain Forecast
Unforunately, the rain is projected into an area which has had plenty on average from late spring through the summer. The dry areas in the Ozarks are along the Missouri/Arkansas border, especially the more east you head.
Meteorologist Ted Keller posted this in Tropics on September 2nd, 2010
Visible Satellite Image of Earl 9/2/10 a.m.
There are three landfall possibilities for “Earl”, the outer banks of North Carolina, Cape Cod and Maine.
If Earl interacts with the approaching front and upper low in the right way, Maine may be the best shot at a U.S. landfall although as a much weaker tropical storm verging on extratropical low if it does.
Category four Earl has made a turn overnight and is moving more northward. It has strengthened to sustained winds of 145 mph. This storm will affect the outer banks of North Carolina later tonight and hurricane warnings are in effect for this region.
As this storm continues north, it will encounter cooler ocean water and deeper wind shear, both of which tend to weaken hurricanes
The upper level winds should begin to grab Earl and send it northeast on Friday. This would exclude much of the east coast from the eye but of course the wind, rain and high surf will be a threat from the Carolina’s northward during Earl’s trek.
Meteorologist Ted Keller posted this in Tropics on September 1st, 2010
Powerful Hurricane Earl is on track to graze certain portions of the east coast. Cape Hatteras and Cape Cod both jut out east into the cone of potential travel for this hurricane.
I will be talking about Earl and discussing hurricanes in general at 1 pm today in my Atmospheric Science class at Missouri State University. You can watch this LIVE on a special edition of “Upstream” hosted by Ustream. While I will not be able to chat during this lecture, with any luck it should record on the Ustream page along with other “Upstream” shows in case you are not able to watch live.
You can also track Earl on this website under the Tropics menu above.
Present thinking is that Earl’s eye will not officially make landfall. It the impacts of heavy rain, wind, high surf and riptides will be felt from the Carolina’s northward to New England.
Earl is not forecast to become much stronger. It is encountering some wind shear which tends to break apart the circulation of tropical systems.
Meteorologist Ted Keller posted this in Tropics on August 30th, 2010
NHC Update Monday 8/30/2010
Danielle is weakening, Earl is up and coming and there might be a Fiona in our future!
Once category four hurricane Danielle is accelerating to the north and northeast now, far away from land. This storm will continue to weaken and lose its tropical storm characteristics and the jet stream grabs it and sends it over much cooler waters.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Earl is hitting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands with heavy rain bands and squalls. The storm is passing close enough to Puerto Rico for the eye to be seen on the National Weather Service radar located on the island. You can get a link to this radar plus a great tracking map and more on the tropics page on this website.
There is of course some speculation on how close Earl will come to the mainland U.S. Hurricanes are steered by the broad wind field they are embedded. However, stronger storms actually help to modify the wind field and buck its tendencies a touch. Also, there are still uncertainties as to what disturbances over the central U.S. will do. My gut feeling on all of this? A more westerly track but whether its enough to threaten the coast significantly remains to be seen.
Puerto Rico Radar from Monday AM
The North Carolina coast up to New England will be watching Earl carefully over the next four days for sure!Another wave is showing signs of development eastward from Earl and has a high probability of organization over the next few days. The next name on the list is “Fiona”. Like Earl, this storm will take a more westerly and southerly track if it continues to develop and will likely be subjected to the same curvature only sooner meaning it would probably be less of a threat to the mainland U.S But could give the northern Leeward Islands another hit. Cooler waters in the wake of Earl might weaken this storm a tad.
Meteorologist Ted Keller posted this in Tropics on August 29th, 2010
Hurricanes really start to fire up this time of year. The combination of warm ocean water with still summer-like weaker winds over the tropics makes this the best time for storms to form.
Cape Verde storms are very popular during this period and are named for the island cluster over the eastern Atlantic which sees easterly waves travel close by.
Easterly waves form over Africa and move toward the west over the Atlantic. These waves exist in the lower troposphere in the lowest 3 miles. They start to appear in April or May and last until October or November. They have a period of about 3 or 4 days and move west between 10 and 20 knots.
Shown below are typical storm frequency and paths for August, September and October.
The next 14 days seem fairly active with the long-range computer models showing various lows or even tropical storms developing.
Meteorologist Ted Keller posted this in Tropics on August 29th, 2010
Forecast Track for Earl
Cape Hatteras “sticks out” into the Atlantic. For this reason, it catches the curve of many a tropical storm or hurricane. Earl may be the next one!
Earl became a minimal hurricane early today. It is on a path which takes it on the northern edge of the Leeward and Virgin Islands.
Earl is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday with a borderline category 2/3 rating on the Safir-Simpson scale (below)
This storm is following a very typical track for late August hurricanes. The included map shows the climatology of August storms including frequency and favored paths.
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