Ceaseless Wind

"Ana"? Near the Dominican Republic on 8/17/09

NHC is downgraded “Ana” to a trough a low pressure as of late this afternoon. This system has an uphill battle for strengthening over the next few days.

First, the system is weak and barely recognized as a closed-off low at the surface. Any organization Ana might try to gain would be wiped out by interactions with the mountains of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba.  It is also in dry air in the middle levels of the atmosphere which makes sustained thunderstorm development very difficult.

Latest computer model guidance do have what’s left of Ana emerging into the Gulf of Mexico late this week. It is at least plausible that this could reform into a stronger tropical system at this time.

Bill on the other hand is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane over the next few days. But it really appears has if this storm will start its curve out over the Atlantic before it has a shot at the eastern U.S. The island of Bermuda will have to what Bill this weekend.

Note the the upper level winds later this week would be out of the northwest over the Ozarks so there is virtually no chance of any of these tropical systems affecting us with their rainfall.

OK. The forecast team (not Keitel, Krebs, Jodl and Burgdorf, but Junge, Gold, Lipanovich, Meister, Westman, Wester, Rogers) has a consensus for Sunday.

We will meander north on I-35 towards Lamoni and Des Moines. Wifi at the rest area near Lamoni will allow us to reach a consensus around noon as to further activity and farther excursions. Promising weather could take us to Omaha, but probably not beyond unless it looks REALLY good. Poor conditions to the north will be an indicator for turning towards KC to bunk in and stage for Monday with one day of our shake-down cruise accomplished. There will undoubtedly be minor problems associated with our caravan that need to be worked out, so rather than stretching out on the first day we will be conservative.

Besides, I’m no longer young and don’t have the strength I had when I was 23, so I’m not wild about going far north and then returning for Monday’s situation.

Sunday AM, Cherry Street Parking Garage. See you there.