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Flash Flood and Severe Threats Tonight

7:20 pm in Extreme Weather, Severe Storms, The Ozarks by Ted Keller

Radar Rain Estimate at 8:15 pm

A flash flood watch is in effect for a good chuck of the Missouri portion of the Ozarks for the rest of the night.

Severe storms over Kansas are forming a line which will produce heavy rain. Hardest hit will be areas northwest of Springfield in Barton and St. Clair counties which have received some heavy rain already today (see radar rain estimation).

Flash Flood Watch in Green

Also, the Storm Prediction Center has scaled down the threat of tornadoes into a small corner of southeast Kansas and just a sliver of southwest Missouri touching the Joplin area.  A severe thunderstorm watch is not out of the question into the wee hours of the morning for a chunk of the Ozarks. ADMIN NOTE: Severe thunderstorm watch was posted.

Flash Flood Watch

11:10 am in Extreme Weather, Forecast Discussion, The Ozarks by Ted Keller

Flash Flood Watch for Tonight

A flash flood watch has been issued by the National Weather Service for tonight across all of the Missouri portion of the Ozarks.

An approaching front will deliver a line of thunderstorms to the area later this evening.  Also, a scattered storm or two this afternoon could cause locally heavy rainfall.  General rain totals of one to two inches can be expected in areas northwest of Springfield.

If the storm line survives more southward, it would begin to overlap areas that received the heaviest rain during Wednesday night and Thursday.

The rainfall projection from the HPC is included.

Radar Rain Estimate

6:11 am in Extreme Weather, Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

Radar Rain Estimate 7am

The rain has arrived! The highest so far: 1-3 inches in McDonald, Newton and Barry counties in Missouri.

Heavier southward where 1.5 to 4″ inches may have fallen since last night.

Springfield has had .65″ from last night to 7 am this morning.

Included is the rain forecast from the Hydrological Prediction Center for the six hours starting at 7 am today.

All of the counties in northwest Arkansas are under a flash flood warning. More updates later today

HPC Rain Forecast 7am-1pm Thursday

Mean Hermine Rain?

5:29 am in Extreme Weather, The Ozarks by Ted Keller

Rainfall Projection Through Friday AM

The latest projections continue to show the remnant low of once tropical storm Hermine tracking over a portion of the Ozarks. This will mean another soggy day on Thursday with excessive rain totals and possible flash flooding.

A flash flood watch has been hoisted by the National Weather Service office for tonight lasting through Friday.

A widespread area of 3-4″+ of rain is forecast to develop over the central portions of the Ozarks. With these old tropical systems, it often happens that a few isolated areas may receive more than the overall forecast for rain. Where these heavier rainfall spikes might occur is still uncertain at this point.

Tropical weather systems spreading heavy rain inland are fairly common.  I pointed out a storm taking a similar path in my blog here.  A discussion of additional September rains can also be found here.

Heavy Hermine Rain?

4:39 pm in Extreme Weather, Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

Visible Satellite of Hermine

As tropical storm Hermine moves along the extreme western Gulf of Mexico, the main question for the Ozarks is: will this storm spike our rain totals to the extreme later this week? In light of the extreme rains of Wednesday and Thursday of last week, this question is certainly on the minds of many.

The official National Hurricane Center forecast has the remnants of Hermine in Oklahoma by Thursday morning.  This will end up being a heavy rain producer wherever it ends up tracking so the question is how close to the Ozarks will this rain bulls-eye get?

The morning computer model runs are somewhat split.  One (NAM) favors a slower, more westward track with 2-3″ totals while another model (GFS) has a more widespread heavy rain for the Ozarks in the range of 3-4″. Both models seem to want to keep the heaviest rain west-north of Springfield starting on Thursday afternoon.


NAM 12hr Precip Ending 7 pm Thursday


GFS 12hr Precip, Same Time

Two Extreme Rains

6:58 am in Extreme Weather, The Ozarks by Ted Keller

Rain Estimate 9/1/2010

Rain Estimate 9/2/2010

Areas south of Battlefield into northern Christian County have had nearly a foot of rain over about a day and a half according to radar rain estimates.

The first rain on the first of the month was the most intense, with rainfall one rainfall report of just over 12″ near the Greene/Christian County line and other scattered reports of 10-12 inches. Much of eastern Greene , western Webster and northern Christian got more than 6″ as indicated by the purple shading.

Then, the rains of the second of September came!  These were more concentrated and smaller in coverage but came very quickly and on the heels of the previous days’ rain, making rain runoff and flash flooding worse. 

Just by eyeing up where purple and purple overlap on the two days, you can see that the two day total exceeded 12″ over a larger area.!

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