Ceaseless Wind

A cool front will be appraoching the area by Saturday.

Ahead of this front, temperatures will recover on Friday to near normal while humidity will run a tad high. For this reason and the overall strength of the upper level winds, severe weather is forecast for much of eastern Kansas and western and northwestern Missouri for Friday. The northwest portion of the Ozarks are included in this slight risk area. The timing is such that the storms should be weakening as they come in from the west Friday evening.

There is an area over west-central Missouri along a WNW-ESE  stationary front which I’ll watch.  It is in an area of backed surface winds but on the edge of the best bulk shear and instability. Hmm…

On Saturday, the line of storms may add an additional 1.5″ to rain totals to the northwest of Springfield.

Radar Rain Estimate 7am

The rain has arrived! The highest so far: 1-3 inches in McDonald, Newton and Barry counties in Missouri.

Heavier southward where 1.5 to 4″ inches may have fallen since last night.

Springfield has had .65″ from last night to 7 am this morning.

Included is the rain forecast from the Hydrological Prediction Center for the six hours starting at 7 am today.

All of the counties in northwest Arkansas are under a flash flood warning. More updates later today

HPC Rain Forecast 7am-1pm Thursday

Radar at 6 am Wednesday

Rain looks healthy for Wednesday and Thursday in the Ozarks, to the tune of several inches!

A front will be propelled near the Ozarks which will aid in the development of rain and storms today.  The rain seems to be aimed at areas more to the north and east of Springfield but everyone could get some rain.

Another band of impressive rain arrives along a stronger cool front which will slide through Thursday night.

This will all lead to rain totals of 2 or even 3 inches, aimed again at areas more to the north of Springfield.

Rainfall Through Saturday AM

We are finally in for some rain in the Ozarks later this week!  Portions of the Ozarks are classified as being in a moderate drought.

The chances come in the form of scattered showers and storms over the next few days, fueled by and increase in humidity and the subsequent unstable air.

Later in the week, a front will drop closer to and eventually move through the Ozarks.  This should boost the rain amount and coverage somewhat.

We have had a dry spell of weather.  Springfield has seen 1.53″ of rain in August, down 1.70″ when compared to normal. We have as of today gone 15 days without measureable rain.

But Springfield and areas to the north are faring better than areas along the Misosuri/Arkansas border which are classified as excessively dry.  Oregon County is actually in moderate drought along with Washington County AR.

The forecast is for the heaviest rains to fall on average away from the driest areas. Still, much of the area could pick up an inch of rain before the cool front shuts things down by Friday.

Weather Map for 7am Wednesday

A front will move through the Ozarks today delivering the coolest air since the middle of May!

The first few days of Springfield Public School classes will start out fantastically! The humidity as of late had already backed off. Now, a front will drop temperatures and humidity levels even more!

The Ozarks will experience highs in the eighties for the next several days will overnight lows become downright chilly by recent standards, dropping into the fifties!

These cool fronts become more common toward fall as upper level jet stream winds begin to assert more influence over the U.S., pulling at chilly air masses up north and bringing them into the central U.S.

Forecast 500 mb Flow Tuesday Evening

A pattern more supportive of sending cool fronts into the central U.S. seems to be developing over the next 10 days or so.

The one with the most going for it is slated to arrive late Tuesday.  This front is being driven by a strong dip in the jet stream flow traveling across the central U.S. this week.

If all goes according to forecast, highs should only reach into the eighties Wednesday and Thursday and perhaps Friday as well.

Lows have a shot at dropping into the fifties Thursday morning and also Friday.

This system does not at this point look like much of a rain-maker.

August has been dry, especially east of Springfield with a moderate drought occurring from Howell and Oregon counties east into the boot-heel.

But the cooler and drier air will be a great break from what has been a pretty hot summer, one which will likely rank in the top ten hottest on record.

Forecast Temperature Thursday 7am