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Flash Flood and Severe Threats Tonight

7:20 pm in Extreme Weather, Severe Storms, The Ozarks by Ted Keller

Radar Rain Estimate at 8:15 pm

A flash flood watch is in effect for a good chuck of the Missouri portion of the Ozarks for the rest of the night.

Severe storms over Kansas are forming a line which will produce heavy rain. Hardest hit will be areas northwest of Springfield in Barton and St. Clair counties which have received some heavy rain already today (see radar rain estimation).

Flash Flood Watch in Green

Also, the Storm Prediction Center has scaled down the threat of tornadoes into a small corner of southeast Kansas and just a sliver of southwest Missouri touching the Joplin area.  A severe thunderstorm watch is not out of the question into the wee hours of the morning for a chunk of the Ozarks. ADMIN NOTE: Severe thunderstorm watch was posted.

Soggy September

4:33 pm in Climate, The Ozarks by Ted Keller

This has been a wet month so far just looking at the official stats for Springfield….and they don’t tell the whole story!

Last night’s rains which proved to have legs through all of the Ozarks into the morning hours boosted our official total for September to 9.11″.  This is a ranking of 7th for the month.

But radar estimates and ground truth from portions of southeastern Greene and northern Christian Counties suggest over a foot of rain has fallen in those areas.

More rain is due in the area late Wednesday and early Thursday.  It appears warmer and drier late in the weekend and early next week.

Springfield Wettest Septembers
Precipitation
Year
17.46 1993
11.65 1986
11.36 1975
9.87 1970
9.46 1945
9.15 1962
9.03 1977
8.52 1894
8.40 1958
8.33 1926

Flash Flood Watch

11:10 am in Extreme Weather, Forecast Discussion, The Ozarks by Ted Keller

Flash Flood Watch for Tonight

A flash flood watch has been issued by the National Weather Service for tonight across all of the Missouri portion of the Ozarks.

An approaching front will deliver a line of thunderstorms to the area later this evening.  Also, a scattered storm or two this afternoon could cause locally heavy rainfall.  General rain totals of one to two inches can be expected in areas northwest of Springfield.

If the storm line survives more southward, it would begin to overlap areas that received the heaviest rain during Wednesday night and Thursday.

The rainfall projection from the HPC is included.

Radar Rain Estimate

6:11 am in Extreme Weather, Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

Radar Rain Estimate 7am

The rain has arrived! The highest so far: 1-3 inches in McDonald, Newton and Barry counties in Missouri.

Heavier southward where 1.5 to 4″ inches may have fallen since last night.

Springfield has had .65″ from last night to 7 am this morning.

Included is the rain forecast from the Hydrological Prediction Center for the six hours starting at 7 am today.

All of the counties in northwest Arkansas are under a flash flood warning. More updates later today

HPC Rain Forecast 7am-1pm Thursday

Mean Hermine Rain?

5:29 am in Extreme Weather, The Ozarks by Ted Keller

Rainfall Projection Through Friday AM

The latest projections continue to show the remnant low of once tropical storm Hermine tracking over a portion of the Ozarks. This will mean another soggy day on Thursday with excessive rain totals and possible flash flooding.

A flash flood watch has been hoisted by the National Weather Service office for tonight lasting through Friday.

A widespread area of 3-4″+ of rain is forecast to develop over the central portions of the Ozarks. With these old tropical systems, it often happens that a few isolated areas may receive more than the overall forecast for rain. Where these heavier rainfall spikes might occur is still uncertain at this point.

Tropical weather systems spreading heavy rain inland are fairly common.  I pointed out a storm taking a similar path in my blog here.  A discussion of additional September rains can also be found here.

Tropical Remnants

6:14 am in Extreme Weather, Forecast Discussion, Tropics by Ted Keller

Rain Path of Erin 2007

Tropical Storm Hermine came ashore near south Texas last night and now the task of figuring out where the heavy rain arc will end up begins!

First off, the projected track looks a bit like that taken by the remnants of tropical storm Erin back in August of 2007.  That particular system activated rain over southwest Missouri and produced just shy of a foot of rain in Miller, MO (Lawrence County).

Hermine is projected to pass west of Springfield proper and this is where the heaviest rain is forecast to fall on Thursday.  The official Hydrological Prediction Center forecast of precipitation includes 3-4″ totals in an arc including western and central Missouri.

5 Day Rain Forecast

 Unforunately, the rain is projected into an area which has had plenty on average from late spring through the summer.  The dry areas in the Ozarks are along the Missouri/Arkansas border, especially the more east you head.

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