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Multiple Tornadic Supercells on Wednesday

10:53 am in Extreme Weather, Storm Summaries by Ted Keller

Hail near Brighton

A pre-Thanksgiving outbreak of supercell thunderstorms occurred on Wednesday the 24th in the Ozarks.  Some produced tornadoes.

It would be a challenge for me to count them from memory!  I know that several passed over the same corridor affecting portions of Vernon, Cedar, St Clair, Hickory, Polk, Dallas and Camden counties.  This was the earlier portion of the outbreak from mid afternoon through early evening. 

Damage was reported near Wheatland and Cross Timbers in Hickory County from this early round.  This was confirmed as two tornadoes today by the National Weather Service. 

Later in the evening, the supercells started shifting more to the south.  One cell starting ramping up significantly as it crossed into northwestern Greene county.  This storm continued east-northeast into southern and southeastern Polk.  This storm was responsible for multiple reports of damage near Brighton on the Greene/Polk county line. This too was confirmed as an EF1 tornado by the National Weather Service today.

Looking North from Hermitage. Photo by Ron Gamble.

A supercell started showing signs of rotation in Jasper and Newton county shortly before 8 pm.  This storm remained tornado-warned as it traveled into Lawrence county.  This was of course a concern for Greene county as it approached.  As it crossed the county and city of Springfield, multiple reports of hail from quarter to as high as ping-pong ball sized were reported.  There was also some minor wind damage.  The tornado warning picked up again as it was just leaving Greene and continued through Webster and Wright counties!

Dent county went tornado-warned for a time late in the evening followed by the final warning in Barry county just before 11 pm and into the 11 o’clock hour.

The National Weather Service has a full report on this storm.

Today’s Winter Junk

9:23 am in Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

9 am Temperatures

After hours of tornado warnings yesterday with possible touchdowns, we have been flung into the icebox today!

Area temperatures have fallen to right around freezing or just below in portions of the Ozarks.  Meanwhile, precipitation echoes are still showing up on radar.  Since the arctic air has undercut warmer air aloft, the precipitation is falling as rain or freezing rain if the temperature is at or below freezing.

So, technically, ice could form on surfaces this morning.  But because of recent warm temperatures, marginal cold and light precipitation, a major accumulation of ice is not expected.

As the cold air gets deeper, a transition to more of a sleet or snow will occur.  Again, totals are expected to be light, under half an inch.

A winter weather advisory is in effect for much of the Ozarks.  I’ll bring you the latest tonight on KOLR and KSFX!

Latest Thanksgiving Weather Outlook

10:51 am in Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

Computer Model Temperature Plots

Cold weather is coming!  This isn’t in question really as the cold front has been very consistent showing up on the long range computer models.

While it still appears an arctic front will progress through the Ozarks in short order late Wednesday or early Thursday, it is always worth watching carefully especially since enough cold air is in supply to produce winter precipitation.

Experience dictates watching to see if “waves” of precipitation will develop along this cold front. A wave essentially means a slowing and kinking of a front.

In the meantime, there is a weaker front forecast to slip through on Monday.  This feature may support some showers or perhaps even a thunderstorm as it passes through.

Warm air returns on Wednesday with the arctic front due in Wednesday night.  As you can see on the inserted graph, lows will be dipping down close to twenty degrees by Friday morning!  The high temperature is expected to be just above freezing on Thanksgiving day.

Snow in Missouri Mid-Week?

9:36 am in Forecast Discussion, The Ozarks by Ted Keller

Loading Images

Surface pressure and humidity at 6 pm Wednesday

A “clipper” low is one which comes out of the northwest over the central U.S.  Besides being fun to say, clipper lows are usually fast-moving (the name) and don’t normally produce a lot of precipitation.

We have a clipper coming toward Missouri/Arkansas by mid-week.  It’s main effect will be to spread light precipitation in the form of rain over the state.  It is not uncommon for such systems to lay down winter precipitation north of their track provided enough cold air is available.

Wednesday’s clipper might have enough chilly air coming in behind it to produce some light winter precipitation in northern Missouri.  It is unlikely to deliver a snow like last Saturdays’ in Iowa and Minnesota but a rain/snow mix is not impossible along with some minor snow accumulation.

Latest computer models suggest up to a half inch of rain may fall over portions of the Ozarks with most areas getting much less on Wednesday and Wednesday evening.

Severe Storms Today?

9:52 am in Extreme Weather, Severe Storms, The Ozarks by Ted Keller

The Storm Prediction Center has put a portion of the Ozarks in a risk for severe thunderstorms today. There is a measureable tornado risk.

The threat area is mainly north of the yellow slight risk line shown on the enclosed map. This map also shows the higher (5%) tornado risk in purple. Ongoing storms and flash flood warnings as of 10:35 am are also indicated.

The current storms will continue to track east with locally heavy rain totals the main calling card. They are expected to weaken somewhat.

Later this afternoon, more storms will build in the same area as the heat and instability build.  The current area of storms will leave behind cooler and stable air but also a boundary for which future storms can interact.  This area would also be subject to the return of more unstable air later this afternoon and evening.

Watching for a Weather Watch

2:26 pm in Forecast Discussion, Severe Storms by Ted Keller

Weather Watch Soon?

The area in blue has been identified as a possible weather watch area. It might be a tornado watch. I’ll update this during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Storms are trying to form over eastern Kansas and would move northeast through the afternoon.  A warm front in the possible watch area may promote some storms to severe weather producers.

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