Ceaseless Wind

6-10 Day Temperature Outlook

The long term outlook for the middle of August is encouraging with respect to cooler temperatures!

Several changes in the jet stream pattern will lead to more cool air being delivered to the northcentral and northeastern U.S.  There is a good chance that the Ozarks will get in on this cooler condition!

This is well-deserved for us.  We have had several long stretches of hot weather this summer and we are in the midst of a mini heat wave right now.  June ranked sixth overall hottest on record for Springfield.  We have had now 34 days of highs ninety or higher including two 99  and a one-hundred degree day last week.

Relief this time of year comes in the form of distrubances in the jet stream which can coax cooler air from Canada into the U.S.  Last summer, the overall pattern was stuck in this mode.  This summer, we have been lucky enough to have these cool fronts visit every once in a while.

Model Temperature Forecast Next 7 Days

It looks good for the rest of March and early April.  By good I mean generally warm and including the warmest stretch of weather so far this spring!

This weekend, another cyclone will affect the area.  Unlike last weekends, this one is not nearly cold enough to produce winter precipitation but instead will spread more rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms into the area Saturday.  The overall wind field would actually support some heavy or even severe storms but the dew points will be low and clouds will limit heating somewhat.  Something to watch out of the corner of our eye.

Meanwhile, a shift in the jet stream winds neat week will cause an extended period of southerly winds and warmth next week.  The graph above is most likely conservative with temperatures during this time. Enjoy!

I does look like spring-like storminess may need to be tackled by the first weekend in April and slightly beyond.

GFS Model's Idea of Monday 3/8 at 6 pm

The pattern of weather is shifting a bit toward the end of this week.  The upper air pattern will stop delivering arctic air to the central U.S. allowing a storm to deepen west of us for a change, putting us on the warm, spring-like side.

Cyclogenesis or low pressure development is expected over Kansas by the weekend.  Temperatures out ahead of this system will warm.  Fifties should make a comeback by Thursday.  Sixties may be possible by the weekend.

This low is forecast to pull through the region early next week.  One long range model delays the low development even more.  This should mean that warmth will rule the weekend while shower chances remain small.

Since we will be on the warm side, showers and thunderstorms are a possibility.  A discussion of the severe weather potential including my storm chasing discussion will be posted under a separate blog soon.

It looks like the arctic air will be taking a break through the first few weeks of March.  This means chances for normal or above normal temperatures.

The polar jet is being diverted northward over the central portion of North America around a ridge of high pressure.  Meanwhile, an active (and El Nino enhanced) southern jet stream will cut under this ridge.  Several disturbances will be moving through this southern jet pattern over the next few weeks.

This will keep our pattern of weather cool to mild.  It may enhance our rain chances if the southern systems can reach into our area.  This may also lead to more thunderstorms over the southern U.S. and in the Ozarks.  Much of the most unstable air will likely stay in the deep south with this pattern and with it lies the chances for widespread severe storms.  But each system will have to be evaluated as it approaches.

Temperature Outlook Tuesday-Saturday

A pattern which will bring us fifty is not sixty-degree weather is establishing itself over the central and eastern U.S.

This is a change from what we have mostly observed since July which has featured a low in the east and high in the west in the upper atmosphere.  This is flipping now which means we’ll be in for above normal temperatures for a change!

Storms will continue to move ashore in the western U.S. and some of those will reform and develop over the Great Plains.  It seems as if these will be warmer storms for us meaning rain, perhaps thunder and maybe only tail-end winter precipitation.

Like Planes at an Airport, Storms Over the Pacific

The overall jet stream pattern is shifting away from the persistent eastern trough, cold air pattern which has dominated since July 1st.

This new pattern will feature a trough of low pressure in the west now.  This will promote storms slamming ashore in the western U.S. while warm air pumps northward into the central U.S.

California and other locations out west will experience many rounds of rain and snow during the next few weeks.  We will see above normal temperatures for a change.

6-10 Day Precipitation

6-10 Day Temperature