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Severe Weather Update

12:35 pm in Extreme Weather, Severe Storms, The Ozarks by Ted Keller

Radar at 1:25 pm

Good news, the tornado threat, what there was, has lessened but a severe thunderstorm watch may be in the works for this afternoon.

Morning storms have changed the environment across much of the Ozarks to lessen the tornado threat. The 5% area ala the SPC is now in Kansas. There is still a marginal (2%) threat for the area.

The storms in question are now approaching Vernon and St Clair counties. This area is under a flash flood warning from morning storms and this additional rainfall could lead to some high water in spots.

A severe thunderstorm watch may be hoisted for a large portion of southwest Missouri shortly as this storm area continues to move ESE. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts are the main threat.

Be sure to watch for updates on KOLR News at 5, 6 & 10 and Ozarks Fox News at 9 pm tonight for the latest!

Severe Storms Today?

9:52 am in Extreme Weather, Severe Storms, The Ozarks by Ted Keller

The Storm Prediction Center has put a portion of the Ozarks in a risk for severe thunderstorms today. There is a measureable tornado risk.

The threat area is mainly north of the yellow slight risk line shown on the enclosed map. This map also shows the higher (5%) tornado risk in purple. Ongoing storms and flash flood warnings as of 10:35 am are also indicated.

The current storms will continue to track east with locally heavy rain totals the main calling card. They are expected to weaken somewhat.

Later this afternoon, more storms will build in the same area as the heat and instability build.  The current area of storms will leave behind cooler and stable air but also a boundary for which future storms can interact.  This area would also be subject to the return of more unstable air later this afternoon and evening.

Today’s Severe Weather Risk

10:47 am in Extreme Weather, Forecast Discussion, Severe Storms, The Ozarks by Ted Keller

An approaching upper level storms will drive a front through the Ozarks early Saturday. Out ahead of this feature, the air is humid and unstable and this will lead to thunderstorm development. Some storms will produce severe weather including a slight tornado risk.

The initial severe weather threat will be out in Kansas.  This is the best chance for supercell storms and a possible tornado by late afternoon.

Later, the storms will begin to merge a bit and damaging winds will become a factor.

Also, rainfall between 1 and 2 inches will be possible over areas of western Missouri back into eastern Kansas.

There will likely be a few scattered storms by late afternoon in the area.  They may produce isolated severe weather but will probably remain multicell due to weak wind shear in the area.  A line of storms will then form to our northwest in Kansas and do the typical slide into our area during the late evening.

I will have the latest on developing thunderstorms on KOLR news at 5 o’clock!

Severe Storms Tonight?

9:54 am in Forecast Discussion, Severe Storms by Ted Keller

 

Severe Storms for Friday

The jet stream is increasing out over the Great Plains and this will help to drive organized severe storms eastward today from Kansas into Missouri.  Some of these storms could be severe by the time they reach the Ozarks later tonight.

The SPC has a slight risk of severe storms in an area just northwest and north of Springfield. 

The overall wind shear is favorable for supercell thunderstorms out west in Kansas.  While a warm air cap is always a concern, the forcing involved with the front and jet stream should be enough to overcome the cap in at least a few areas. 

The storms east of Springfield in Howell, Shannon and Dent Counties will continue to move east.  Meanwhile, showers and storms are developing near the approaching system in Kansas and this will continue to grow into the slight risk area today.

The rain bulls-eye will occur over northern and central Missouri.  Storms should show a tendency to fill back to the southwest later this evening and these will be the heaviest the Ozarks see this evening and overnight.

The jet stream is marginal for supercells but a few could develop.  Hail is not a large threat due to high freezing levels but damaging winds are a real possibility with some storms in the risk area.  Tornadoes are not a huge risk but any supercell that does develop will have to be watched.  The greatest risk would be near the Kansas City area and eastern Kansas early this evening.

Ninety-Degree Stretch To End, Barely

6:54 am in Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

Weather Map @ 4 am Saturday

Today (Saturday) will likely be the 11th day in a row with a high temperature of ninety or higher in Springfield.  The hottest day of this run was last Sunday when we hit 95.  It will be the 24th time we have been in the nineties this summer.

A front is dropping down over Missouri today and this system should knock our temperatures down a little on Sunday and for the first few days of next week.

The front is expected to generate rain and storms later this afternoon in northern Missouri which will slowly drop into our area tonight and Sunday. 

General rainfall totals could exceed 3/4 of an inch in areas roughly north and west of a line  from Joplin to Stockton to Warsaw later tonight and early Sunday.

This front will move south of us early next week but will quickly lose its definition.  The cooling will come from persistent areas of clouds and rain/storm areas which form near this feature.  Also, the remnants of T.D. “Bonnie” will play into this somewhat with differences in where the rain might be maximized showing up in computer weather models.  The graph shown highlights major difference in temperature on Tuesday owing to differences in precipitation. The reddish and blue-ish colors representing two different models with the red indicating cooler temperatures on this day because of more clouds and rain.

Temperatures Trying to Back Off

Vtoo.2 Chase Week. Day One, June 6th, 2010

9:12 am in Storm Chase VToo.2, Storm Chasing by Ted Keller

This was a long day!  It started with a wake-up of around 4 am as a long drive was in store; all the way to northeastern Colorado!  The goal was to meet Annette from Artbeats somewhere in that region by afternoon.

After crossing into Colorado, storms could be seen popping up everywhere.  Some were to the right of I-70 forming along a small boundary in Nebraska.  Others were firing in the foothils straight ahead.  After a careful review of the meteorology and radar trends and considering vehicle logistics, we set the staging and overnight stay town as Sterling, Colorado.

On the way north toward Sterling, a rather impressive supercell could be seen approaching the town from the west.  It was looking so good in fact that Annette was called out in the field from Sterling in fear that the delay in the vehicle exchange would cost the loss of some great footage!  This was a good decision it turned out, here is a small clip of that storm in 10x time lapse.

The overall problem with regard to getting a tornado to form was a lack of low level moisture and a somewhat mediocore surface wind field.  That same lack of moisture did provide the classic open window so to speak on all mid and low level rotations as seen in the time lapse.

As it turns out, and as is often the case with tornadoes, the storms that did generate a tornado were along that boundary I mentioned in Nebraska.

After the Sterling storm, we all headed south.  The left-moving split of a storm crossed in from of us and dumped some slushy but sizeable hail on us and also produce a vivid rainbow off to the east as it passed.  We pursued the right mover of this cell to a tornado-warned Akron, CO with no tornado produced.

We actually ended up going back north along highway 63, then back south to Akron and beyond and finally back north to Sterling to finish the day.

All in all, we followed three tornado-warned storms.

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