You are browsing the archive for snow forecast.

White Christmas

11:55 am in Winter Weather by Ted Keller

Various Snow Projections

Odds are against us getting Christmas to be white with snow most of the time but this year we should should see it!

The storm first highlighted last week has actually held together and the timing puts it into the Ozarks on Christmas Eve.  As with most storms, the track is in disagreement among the computer forecast models.  This has not been much of a timing issue however as Friday still looks like the day with some precipitation breaking out Thursday night.

While the precipitation is expected to be primarily snow Friday afternoon, it night start as a bit of sleet Thursday night.

The graph is valid as of about noon Wednesday.  The plot is meant for Springfield. The reddish lines are one computer model, the blueish are another.  The red model favors more snow with totals right around 2″  The blue model is not nearly as enthusiastic about the white stuff.

Now here are some Ozarks maps.  The first is the red model (NAM), the second is the blue (GFS). The NAM has more snow in general and more to the south.  The GFS has snow largely missing the Ozarks except for areas east of Springfield.

NAM snow

GFS Snow

I’m always a bit torn on snow around Christmas because I know folks want to travel to to see friends and family or to do last minute shopping and even a light snow can snarl things up a bit.  On the other hand, if the actual snow ends up in-between these two models. it won’t be too bad and only an over night snow into Christmas Day could be timed out better! 

What we don’t want is a repeat of 2002, which for those of you who don’t recalled dumped a huge snow on the Ozarks on the 23rd, slowing Springfield down to a crawl!  It took me nearly two hours to get from near Battlefield Road to the studio that day!

Tom and Jill will have the latest!  I’m watching this one from home.  Be safe!

Winter Systems

8:42 pm in Winter Weather by Ted Keller

There are two weather systems which will tap into the abundance of cold air in place over the central U.S. this week.  At this writing, neither seems to be a huge threat.

The first slides in Wednesday.  It’s main threat is to produce light showers and drizzle which will fall into sub-freezing morning air on Wednesday.  This then is a potential for some light freezing precipitation.  It may cause somewhat of a hassle if it happens to occur during the morning off-to-work and/or school time.  It is expected to “warm” on Wednesday afternoon to above freezing in the middle thirties which should eliminate the freezing threat for all but the extreme eastern and northeastern portion of the Ozarks.  The light freezing precipitation may make a comeback late Wednesday when cold air comes back around the other side of this system.

Then on Friday, a weak little weather system is shown crossing the southern Great Plains.  If this finds some strength or changes track slightly, it could deliver some snow to the Ozarks, perhaps leaning south?

Both of these threats are in line with the higher index of weather system count I talked about in my White Christmas thread last week.  In the fantasy-land world of computer models, there are still a few weather “systems” between now and Christmas (which by the way looks cold at this point), perhaps 19-20 and again around the 23rd?  As I indicated earlier, the exact dates are not as important as the fact that thet show up and there is cold enough air in supply.

Weekend Cold (and snow?)

12:09 pm in The Ozarks, Winter Weather by Ted Keller

Another arctic front will slam through our area on Saturday.  

While Minneapolis and parts of the upper Midwest are under a blizzard watch, our portion of the system consists of a cold front and very strong winds in the wake of the front.

Snow chances come in two forms: a brief changeover late Saturday as the front comes through and then some snow that may wrap around the upper Midwest storm which would affect central and eastern Missouri implying flurries in the Lake of the Ozarks area Saturday night.

Some computer models are outputing minor snow accumulations in the same areas I discussed earlier in the week to the northeast of Springfield and those chances remain as they were, outside the mainstream output.

The winds Saturday night and Sunday will be gusting over 25 mph!  This combined with temperatures in the teens will produce wind chill readings in near zero or even slightly below during this time!  Sunday’s high will only reach into the twenties.

White Christmas?

9:09 am in Winter Weather by Ted Keller

I think our chances for seeing a white Christmas in the Ozarks are slightly higher than average…

This weekend weather system won’t do it even if it does manage to lay down some measureable snow as it will melt pretty quickly.

The basis for my observation comes from just casually glancing at the long-long range models, those that run out 10 days (or more).  Now, no one should ever believe the exact output of any of these models of course.  But I do think you can pick up on some trends if you watch them long enough.

The overall trend for the next several weeks is a progressive pattern of  cold air invasions with storm systems coming out of the northwest and “making the turn” so to speak over the central U.S.  Simply put: there is cold air and storm potential!

As an example, this morning there is a hint at something around the 15th, another near the 18th and perhaps even a third right before Christmas. 

Now, the dates are not nearly as important as number of systems.  While there is no guarantee that any of these will contain the right mixture of cold air for snow or track in a favorable way for the Ozarks, well, how does it go, half the battle is just showing up?  Something like that…

FYI: this is all  in line with what is expected during a La Nina pattern of weather over the U.S.  which puts a precipitation maximum just to our east.

When all is said and done, our ground may end up bare this holiday but hey, this is the season for faith and believe, right?  I’m a believer!

Snow Possible

7:42 am in Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather by Ted Keller

When arctic air finds it easy to roost in the heartland of the U.S., watching for snow possibilities becomes my favorite past-time.  Here’s the latest…

Long-range computer models have been sending some signals as to the possibility of a snow-producing storm around December 11-12th (Saturday-Sunday) for about a week now.  As usual, such chances are taken with a grain of salt until we get a bit closer to the actual forecast time.

The arctic air now in place will be lifting out of here by late in the week.  A small disturbance that I hinted at late last week will be sliding into Oklahoma late tonight and early Tuesday on the edge of this cold air with some light snow potential.  This does not appear threatening to the Ozarks.

By Saturday night, a low pressure area has been showing up swinging near Missouri.  The track and intensity of this feature has been all over the dial as they say.  A more southerly track would bring us greater snow potential.  At this writing, this seems to be the outlying possibility.

I would say the most likely scenario would be a shot of snow Saturday night as the storm intensifies while moving east.  It’s an old joke but I’ll know more on Monday the 13th!  Stay tuned to KOLR/KSFX for the latest.

March Madness

10:11 am in Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

"Thicknesses" (layer temperatures) 7 am Sunday

There is still the possibility of accumulating snow in the Ozarks late Saturday and early Sunday!

The major change since yesterdays post on this topic is that the system now appears to be “cutting off” or occluding south of the Ozarks.

For Springfield, there appears to be barely enough “warm” air flowing westward counterclockwise around this low to keep the precipitation liquid here, although it is very close!! (“S” shape on picture above)  Snow is much more likely to the west and northwest of Springfield in western Missouri and eastern Kansas.  A heavy, wet snow could accumulate quick in those areas beginning late Saturday afternoon and lasting overnight.  There is a potential for totals to exceed 4 inches.  Like yesterday, the overnight timing is working in favor of snow sticking.

Winter Storm Watch

By Sunday, the core of the coldest air will actually be south of the Ozarks.  It looks like we will have enough warming at the surface and aloft to at least mix snow with rain over the area during the day.

AWSOM Powered