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A Mix Over the Ozarks

11:29 am in Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

A Snow Band Northwest of the Low Sunday?

A very slight and light chance for precipitation will occur overnight tonight.

But the two main waves of precipitation will be Friday PM and Sunday. 

For Friday, rain south of Springfield with rain most likely in Springfield and better chances for a rain/snow mix or even all snow north of Springfield.  It doesn’t look as if this first round has much of a chance of laying down significant snow accumulations.

Saturday looks cloudy and cool with the day starting with some leftover light snow or perhaps some mix of winter precipitation.

Then Saturday night through Sunday night, another batch of precipitation moves through the area.  Precipitation type will be determined largely by nighttime cooler readings which might promote more mixed precipitation.  It looks as if much of the precipitation will be rain or a rain/snow mix Sunday day but there is a possibility of a wet accumulating snow Sunday in portions of Vernon, Barton, St. Clair, Benton, Hickory, Camden. Miller and Morgan Counties.  I’ll be watching!

This looks like it will all end with a batch of light snow on Sunday night for much of the Ozarks.

Hey, next week , another southern snow track ( N. Texas, S. Oklahoma, S. Arkansas and N. Louisiana) looks possible in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame.

Any More Snow?

11:04 am in Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

The next few systems seem to want to “warm” a bit more than the last few which means more rain or other winter precipitation may need to be included in the forecast.

Friday through Sunday look unsettled with various chances for precipitation.  One model looks much warmer than the other and there are differences in timing too.  If you believe one model (GFS), we will have snow on Friday while the other model (NAM) ignores this and waits and warms the precipitation through the weekend.  The last four GFS runs have consistently shown snow with possible rain south and I can’t think of a reason to disagree at this time.

The weekend depends very much on whether a “wave” or low pressure center develops near us.  If it does, then we can expected a warmer pattern with better chances for rain.  If not, we’ll likely stay with mixed precipitation.

It still looks like the storms will remain active for the next several week.  California seems to be targeted again with one storm after another which means more heavy rain and snow.

It “seems” like these storms will take a more northerly track which means less chances for winter precipitation but the details at this distance anyway are not reliable.

Weekend Snow

6:17 pm in Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

NAM Model Projection of Snow

A new surge of colder air will be accompanied by some accumulating snowfall over the weekend.

On Saturday, much of beginning precipitation will actually start as light rain.  A low will track across southern Missouri and air north of the track of this system should be cold enough for snow.

In the wake of the low, colder air will take over on Sunday changing any remaining precipitation over to snow.  A low in the upper atmosphere will keep this snow chance in play into Monday morning.

The Rest of the Snow

10:21 am in Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

Radar at 10:00 am

The heaviest snow has already targeted north central Arkansas a will continue to do so throughout the day.

Reports of 2-4″ have come in from Searcy Co. AR with general 1-2″ amounts in most of the rest of northern Arkansas.  Cherokee Village reported 3.5″ early this morning.  The radar image above shows that the northern edge of the very obvious heavy precipitation area will pass over these same areas today, dumping another 4-6″, bringing storm totals in the 8-10″ range for some.

Missouri had 2″+  totals north of Springfield overnight.  Most areas received a dusting to almost 1″.  Another band of snow will affect this area today with a 2-3″ additional potential.  Snow will last into the evening in many areas, not ending to the east of Springfield until midnight.

Snow Update

10:25 am in Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

It still looks as if the Ozarks will experience a pretty good snow beginning later tonight.  While light snow will likely affect everybody through early Tuesday morning, there appear to be a few more intense bands.

Tonight, snow will spread in and will target areas north of Springfield first with broad 1-3″ totals.  Then late Monday morning, another batch will begin in the MO/ARK border area and northern Arkansas which will be the heaviest and all interests in that area should watch this closely for snow exceeding 4″!  Finally a more general snow will affect the area well into Monday evening.  This will dump another several inches in Springfield and much of southwest Missouri.

“Upstream” will broadcast at 4 pm and 11:30 pm today, Sunday.

 

A Little of Everything then Snow, then SNOW

10:46 am in Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

Radar @ 10:25 am

Drivers in Springfield should watch out for slightly slick conditions beginning around 11 am and lasting into the afternoon!

Today, the atmosphere can support just about any winter precipitation type.

The radar image included is one of light snow, sleet and freezing rain.  Rain would also be possible today.  Surface temperatures are just a touch above freezing outside of the precipitation and drop to around and just below in the core of radar echoes.

In the upper atmosphere, temperatures are actually warm enough for rain but once again, in the core of the precipitation areas, enough cooling is taking place to mix it up a bit.

While accumulations are expected to be light, traveling south of Springfield and into portions of northern Arkansas might be slick!

An accumulating snow is still expected starting overnight tonight as the atmosphere cools overall and all precipitation converts to snow.

A broad area of 1-3 inches of snow can be expected before in tapers off Friday evening.

A bigger snow is still expected late Sunday and Monday.

The live webshow “Upstream” will be on again today and tomorrow at special times:

4-6:30 pm              Live chat and images, limited audio

6:30 – 7:00 pm      Full live show

11:00 – ? pm           Full live show

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