You are browsing the archive for snow ozarks.

Snow Possible

7:42 am in Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather by Ted Keller

When arctic air finds it easy to roost in the heartland of the U.S., watching for snow possibilities becomes my favorite past-time.  Here’s the latest…

Long-range computer models have been sending some signals as to the possibility of a snow-producing storm around December 11-12th (Saturday-Sunday) for about a week now.  As usual, such chances are taken with a grain of salt until we get a bit closer to the actual forecast time.

The arctic air now in place will be lifting out of here by late in the week.  A small disturbance that I hinted at late last week will be sliding into Oklahoma late tonight and early Tuesday on the edge of this cold air with some light snow potential.  This does not appear threatening to the Ozarks.

By Saturday night, a low pressure area has been showing up swinging near Missouri.  The track and intensity of this feature has been all over the dial as they say.  A more southerly track would bring us greater snow potential.  At this writing, this seems to be the outlying possibility.

I would say the most likely scenario would be a shot of snow Saturday night as the storm intensifies while moving east.  It’s an old joke but I’ll know more on Monday the 13th!  Stay tuned to KOLR/KSFX for the latest.

Storm Report, Strange Weather

10:41 am in Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

Snow Cover on 3/22/10 Using MODIS

O.K., after a sick and draining Saturday, I have the energy to discuss this winter (spring?) storm!  My apologies for missing “Upstream” Friday night and what have likely been a special edition on Saturday too.  I also wasn’t able to attend a NWS conference on Saturday morning. I hate being sick!

Anyway, there are three aspects to this storm which people are asking a lot about 1) isn’t it too late in the season for this 2) how can we have just been in the sixties and are forecast to be back that warm in a few days and 3) what’s with the big differences in precipitation type and totals over short distances in the Ozarks?

Well, first off, big March snows are not unheard of at all.  The last one I remember was in the late nineties and although I don’t have an exact date handy, I can tell you it occurred the same weekend that the men MSU (SMSU) Bears went to the NCAA playoffs.  It was a Saturday night…I believe portions of the Ozarks received over 10 inches!   Another big storm occurred sometime in the late eighties (again, I don’t have access to detailed records here at home, this is all by personal recollection).  That storm just about shut this town down and you should know it was seventy degrees only a few days after this storm!  Finally, the small difference in average snowfall between February and March should tell you something about March snow potential.

You think you’re in shock over this, think about what the folks in Kansas were feeling last year in late March.

"Cut-off" Low at 7am Sunday at 500 mb.

As for this “winter sandwich” we seem to be in, with warmth on both sides of the storm, this is best explained by the “cutoff” nature of this weather system and by the fact that spring is simply an extreme time of year.  Because the cold air was drawn into a circulation that cut itself off from the main jet stream flow, it will only be a matter of moving the cold core to experience a rapid temperature recovery.

This same closed-off and slow-moving structure explains how the precipitation was laid down.  Greene County, which was correctly forecast to be “on the line”,  certainly lived up to this with 6″ plus snow/sleet totals over the extreme western portion of the county to rain and freezing rain in the eastern portion (I have about a 1/4″ of ice on my trees here in eastern Springfield). Nightfall determined precipitation type here in Greene county as temperature adjusted down a bit.

 A transition from rain to sleet to ice to snow is not unheard of in most winter storms.  In non-low pressure storms involving a front, this is usually much more noticeable and is responsible for nearly all of the worst ice storms.  But low pressure type storms such as this weekend’s are usually moving too fast and have narrow mixed zones so that mixed precipitation is not usually an issue.  But as we already know, this storm “cut off” and was slow-moving, allowing a everything to exaggerate.  The ice and the quick transition to heavy snow totals are the two aspects to this storm that I think were largely unexpected.

Because of the heavy rains and a snowpack which is expected to melt quickly later in the week, river flooding will likely be an issue for some.

I’m thinking about an “Uptream” later today, probably in the early evening as I’ll be working the late shows tonight. Send in photos and storm reports!

Link to MODIS Satellite images.

March Madness

10:11 am in Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

"Thicknesses" (layer temperatures) 7 am Sunday

There is still the possibility of accumulating snow in the Ozarks late Saturday and early Sunday!

The major change since yesterdays post on this topic is that the system now appears to be “cutting off” or occluding south of the Ozarks.

For Springfield, there appears to be barely enough “warm” air flowing westward counterclockwise around this low to keep the precipitation liquid here, although it is very close!! (“S” shape on picture above)  Snow is much more likely to the west and northwest of Springfield in western Missouri and eastern Kansas.  A heavy, wet snow could accumulate quick in those areas beginning late Saturday afternoon and lasting overnight.  There is a potential for totals to exceed 4 inches.  Like yesterday, the overnight timing is working in favor of snow sticking.

Winter Storm Watch

By Sunday, the core of the coldest air will actually be south of the Ozarks.  It looks like we will have enough warming at the surface and aloft to at least mix snow with rain over the area during the day.

A Mix Over the Ozarks

11:29 am in Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

A Snow Band Northwest of the Low Sunday?

A very slight and light chance for precipitation will occur overnight tonight.

But the two main waves of precipitation will be Friday PM and Sunday. 

For Friday, rain south of Springfield with rain most likely in Springfield and better chances for a rain/snow mix or even all snow north of Springfield.  It doesn’t look as if this first round has much of a chance of laying down significant snow accumulations.

Saturday looks cloudy and cool with the day starting with some leftover light snow or perhaps some mix of winter precipitation.

Then Saturday night through Sunday night, another batch of precipitation moves through the area.  Precipitation type will be determined largely by nighttime cooler readings which might promote more mixed precipitation.  It looks as if much of the precipitation will be rain or a rain/snow mix Sunday day but there is a possibility of a wet accumulating snow Sunday in portions of Vernon, Barton, St. Clair, Benton, Hickory, Camden. Miller and Morgan Counties.  I’ll be watching!

This looks like it will all end with a batch of light snow on Sunday night for much of the Ozarks.

Hey, next week , another southern snow track ( N. Texas, S. Oklahoma, S. Arkansas and N. Louisiana) looks possible in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame.

Any More Snow?

11:04 am in Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

The next few systems seem to want to “warm” a bit more than the last few which means more rain or other winter precipitation may need to be included in the forecast.

Friday through Sunday look unsettled with various chances for precipitation.  One model looks much warmer than the other and there are differences in timing too.  If you believe one model (GFS), we will have snow on Friday while the other model (NAM) ignores this and waits and warms the precipitation through the weekend.  The last four GFS runs have consistently shown snow with possible rain south and I can’t think of a reason to disagree at this time.

The weekend depends very much on whether a “wave” or low pressure center develops near us.  If it does, then we can expected a warmer pattern with better chances for rain.  If not, we’ll likely stay with mixed precipitation.

It still looks like the storms will remain active for the next several week.  California seems to be targeted again with one storm after another which means more heavy rain and snow.

It “seems” like these storms will take a more northerly track which means less chances for winter precipitation but the details at this distance anyway are not reliable.

Weekend Snow

6:17 pm in Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

NAM Model Projection of Snow

A new surge of colder air will be accompanied by some accumulating snowfall over the weekend.

On Saturday, much of beginning precipitation will actually start as light rain.  A low will track across southern Missouri and air north of the track of this system should be cold enough for snow.

In the wake of the low, colder air will take over on Sunday changing any remaining precipitation over to snow.  A low in the upper atmosphere will keep this snow chance in play into Monday morning.

AWSOM Powered