Ceaseless Wind

Radar @ 10:25 am

Drivers in Springfield should watch out for slightly slick conditions beginning around 11 am and lasting into the afternoon!

Today, the atmosphere can support just about any winter precipitation type.

The radar image included is one of light snow, sleet and freezing rain.  Rain would also be possible today.  Surface temperatures are just a touch above freezing outside of the precipitation and drop to around and just below in the core of radar echoes.

In the upper atmosphere, temperatures are actually warm enough for rain but once again, in the core of the precipitation areas, enough cooling is taking place to mix it up a bit.

While accumulations are expected to be light, traveling south of Springfield and into portions of northern Arkansas might be slick!

An accumulating snow is still expected starting overnight tonight as the atmosphere cools overall and all precipitation converts to snow.

A broad area of 1-3 inches of snow can be expected before in tapers off Friday evening.

A bigger snow is still expected late Sunday and Monday.

The live webshow “Upstream” will be on again today and tomorrow at special times:

4-6:30 pm              Live chat and images, limited audio

6:30 – 7:00 pm      Full live show

11:00 – ? pm           Full live show

GFS Model's Idea for Snow Through Friday

Two winter weather systems are coming our way.

My live webcast “Upstream” will be going into extended coverage mode because of this.  The live chat with limited audio will be available from 4 pm to 7 pm each day this week.  I will have a full audio map discussion at 6:30 pm and at the usual time at 11 pm.  It looks likely that I will be doing special shows this weekend too as the stronger of the two storms approaches.

A storm system will thicken clouds over the area Thursday with rain following Thursday night.  The northern and northwestern edge of that rain will have to be watched for snow that night.  During the day Friday, winds will shift around to support more pure snow over the area accompanied by a small disturbance will likely lay down a several inches of snow.  I’ll post a snow projection map on the news tonight.

A more robust storm will affect the area beginning Sunday evening and lasting through Monday evening.  This looks to be leaning toward all snow again especially on Monday.  It is too early to project totals with confidence on this storm yet.

NWS Snow Total Map for Missouri

Well, the storm from last week is a few days behind us.  Temperatures have warmed, the thaw has begun. 

It was an interesting storm, first tracked about five to six days before it occurred.  For days, it looked consistently like a Thursday evening and overnight snow.  Then, a intense “cold side” portion of the storm began to take shape which was clearly targeting Friday.

As Thursday evening rolled around, the precipitation started surging northward. Arkansas, at least the portion within the KOLR/KSFX viewing area, started getting light freezing rain followed by sleet and eventually snow.  I sat and watched the radar loops and noticed that the precipitation was “stuck”; it just wasn’t advancing northward into Missouri that evening.  A check of was was going on directly overhead in Springfield via a “balloon launch” at 6 pm showed that the precipitation was trying to fall through an extremely dry layer of air.  As a result, it wasn’t reaching the ground.

This caused me to revise my snowfall projections downward (pictured below) between the 6 pm KOLR show and the 9 pm KSFX show.  The real kick in the head and part of the sweet irony which often accompanies weather forecasting decisions is that if I had left the early projection alone, it would have been closer to what actually happened!  This is because the second wave of snow on Friday exceeded expectations.  It would have been a classic case of “right for the wrong reasons!”

That second wave really started to look interesting on Thursday afternoon.

Everyone was expecting a lot more snow in Springfield Friday morning than what actually occurred of course with 1 to 1.5 inches instead of the 4-6 I reasoned we would end up with.  The above mentioned dry air is to blame.  It didn’t just magically appear; I saw it, it was one reason why, if I can hang my hat on this at all really, my snow projections tended to lean on the conservative side.  That and questions about precipiatation type and changeover times.  When it came down to it, the dry air was just a little drier and the “surge” of moisture both couldn’t overcome it as quickly and was being directed a bit more to the southeast of Springfield specifically. (note that by Friday morning, Mtn. Home, Arkansas had indeed picked up about 4 inches, just the start of a winter wonderland for those folks!)

Despite the failure of the Friday morning snow to be as heavy, I think the storm as a whole was forecast very well.  Everyone had at least 5 days to prepare.  Changes and updates to the forecast were handled quickly and accurately.  The second surge was handled very well.

If some people thought that Springfield would wake up Friday to a foot of snow or that it wouldn’t be snowing into Friday evening, I don’t know what to say except to listen carefully to what meteorologists are saying.  I also strongly suggest checking this blog and other social networking sites.  For instance, I knew shortly after the measurement was taken at about 7 pm Thursday evening that the morning totals would have to be scaled back. 

Tuesday 10 pm Snow Projection

Wednesday 10 pm Snow Projection

Thursday 6 pm Snow Projection

Thursday 10 pm Snow Projection

Radar Summary at 9 am

Dry air a few thousand feet off the ground as measured in Springfield at 6 pm last night put the brakes on the start of precipitation in Springfield and across southern Missouri.  But it was overcome in extreme southern Missouri and Arkansas overnight.  As of about 8:30 am, Mtn. Home , AR, had about 4″ on the ground.  Springfield about 1 to 1.5″.  The larger totals expected in Springfield this morning went out the window with that dry air!

But the second round I’ve been referring to is ongoing and still on the way.  Regional radar summaries show a surge of precipitation arcing northward toward our area.  The result of all of this will be to put the heaviest snow in south central Missouri and northcentral Arkansas where  4 more additional inches can still be expected today.  Springfield may pick up another 3″ through the day today.

Dry air around 5000 feet. A snow stopper!

The overall threat with this winter storm hasn’t changed too much, here are the important points:

1.  The start of the major precipitation has consistently been shifting later and later.  It looks like it will begin Thursday evening in northwest Arkansas as a initial mixture of sleet and freezing rain.  This will then spread north and east during the overnight hours and change to snow over southern Missouri.  By A.M. rush Friday, much of the area, including Springfield, and especially areas just south of Springfield, will have likely picked up about 4-8 inches of snow!  This precipitation is on the “warm” side of the storm and represents the strongest burst and ultimately, because of its timing and ” juicy” nature, will be the most troublesome.

2.  There are still hints at enough warm air aloft to cause some sleet or freezing rain to be mixed in from time to time. This would be more likely in extreme southern Missouri and northern Arkansas.  I don’t see any indication yet of a pure ice storm within the KOLR/KSFX viewing area and I hope this trend continues.

3.  There appears to be a second batch of snow taking shape, the “cold” side snow, over portions of southeastern Kansas during the morning Friday.  This will spread eastward during the day Friday and may cause several more inches of snow to accumulate.  It looks like flurries might be flying after dark Friday in some areas.

Do to the overwhelmimg popular demand for this, I will be broadcasting live on the web at the following times today.  A live chat room is featured, bring questions or comments!:

1:00 pm  A weather briefing I give to my students at MSU.  About ten minutes.

4-5 pm  A chat room will be open and I will cycle through some maps.  Limited live talking due to TV preparation but I’ll pop in from time to time!

6:30 pm Live from the Weather Lab!  About half and hour.

11:00 pm The regular broadcast of “Upstream” from my house.  Half hour or more.

The link to all of these broadcasts on Ustream.tv