Ceaseless Wind

Computer Model Temperature Projection

The warmest air since September will flood the area Wednesday-Friday!  An isolated eighty-degree high would not be out of the question.  The Easter weekend will start out with some rain and thunder and a bit cooler Saturday.  Easter itself is shaping up, so far anyway with highs in the sixties and the rain moving east.

Model Temperature Forecast Next 7 Days

It looks good for the rest of March and early April.  By good I mean generally warm and including the warmest stretch of weather so far this spring!

This weekend, another cyclone will affect the area.  Unlike last weekends, this one is not nearly cold enough to produce winter precipitation but instead will spread more rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms into the area Saturday.  The overall wind field would actually support some heavy or even severe storms but the dew points will be low and clouds will limit heating somewhat.  Something to watch out of the corner of our eye.

Meanwhile, a shift in the jet stream winds neat week will cause an extended period of southerly winds and warmth next week.  The graph above is most likely conservative with temperatures during this time. Enjoy!

I does look like spring-like storminess may need to be tackled by the first weekend in April and slightly beyond.

GFS Model's Idea of Monday 3/8 at 6 pm

The pattern of weather is shifting a bit toward the end of this week.  The upper air pattern will stop delivering arctic air to the central U.S. allowing a storm to deepen west of us for a change, putting us on the warm, spring-like side.

Cyclogenesis or low pressure development is expected over Kansas by the weekend.  Temperatures out ahead of this system will warm.  Fifties should make a comeback by Thursday.  Sixties may be possible by the weekend.

This low is forecast to pull through the region early next week.  One long range model delays the low development even more.  This should mean that warmth will rule the weekend while shower chances remain small.

Since we will be on the warm side, showers and thunderstorms are a possibility.  A discussion of the severe weather potential including my storm chasing discussion will be posted under a separate blog soon.

It looks like the arctic air will be taking a break through the first few weeks of March.  This means chances for normal or above normal temperatures.

The polar jet is being diverted northward over the central portion of North America around a ridge of high pressure.  Meanwhile, an active (and El Nino enhanced) southern jet stream will cut under this ridge.  Several disturbances will be moving through this southern jet pattern over the next few weeks.

This will keep our pattern of weather cool to mild.  It may enhance our rain chances if the southern systems can reach into our area.  This may also lead to more thunderstorms over the southern U.S. and in the Ozarks.  Much of the most unstable air will likely stay in the deep south with this pattern and with it lies the chances for widespread severe storms.  But each system will have to be evaluated as it approaches.

Some U.S. Threats

As severe weather threatens later this week, be sure to tune into the Weather Lab meteorologists for the latest. Then, for a live forecast discussion tune into my show “Upstream” on the web each night this week at 11 pm.

The activation of a storm track, fueled in part by warm El Nino waters in the central Pacific, will cause some hazards over portions of the U.S. this week.

For the Ozarks, we will be mild through Saturday with increasing wind as a storm develops to our west.  Expect highs in the fifties with an occasional run at sixty.  Rain showers are possible later tonight and through Thursday but there should be plenty of dry hours in between.  There may be some thunder in the Ozarks tonight with small hail mainly east and south of Springfield.

More thunderstorms are possible Saturday along a cold front.  The southern portion of the Ozarks is tagged as a possible severe weather area on Saturday.  Severe weather should be more common in the southern and southeastern U.S. as the map above shows.

The storm track will continue to bring storms into California.  The result will be high winds and surf, heavy rain and snow and possible severe storms especially today.

Temperature Outlook Tuesday-Saturday

A pattern which will bring us fifty is not sixty-degree weather is establishing itself over the central and eastern U.S.

This is a change from what we have mostly observed since July which has featured a low in the east and high in the west in the upper atmosphere.  This is flipping now which means we’ll be in for above normal temperatures for a change!

Storms will continue to move ashore in the western U.S. and some of those will reform and develop over the Great Plains.  It seems as if these will be warmer storms for us meaning rain, perhaps thunder and maybe only tail-end winter precipitation.