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Latest Thanksgiving Weather Outlook

10:51 am in Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

Computer Model Temperature Plots

Cold weather is coming!  This isn’t in question really as the cold front has been very consistent showing up on the long range computer models.

While it still appears an arctic front will progress through the Ozarks in short order late Wednesday or early Thursday, it is always worth watching carefully especially since enough cold air is in supply to produce winter precipitation.

Experience dictates watching to see if “waves” of precipitation will develop along this cold front. A wave essentially means a slowing and kinking of a front.

In the meantime, there is a weaker front forecast to slip through on Monday.  This feature may support some showers or perhaps even a thunderstorm as it passes through.

Warm air returns on Wednesday with the arctic front due in Wednesday night.  As you can see on the inserted graph, lows will be dipping down close to twenty degrees by Friday morning!  The high temperature is expected to be just above freezing on Thanksgiving day.

Cooler by Front and Cloud

12:42 pm in Forecast Discussion, The Ozarks by Ted Keller

Surface Temperatures/Radar at 1:15 pm

Thanks to very persistent clouds in the wake of morning rain and storms, our temperatures have remained quite cool this afternoon.

Readings are only in the seventies over much of the Ozarks.  Meanwhile, areas south of the rain and cooler front are in the one-hundred’s again.  Also, where the sun has come out in upstate Missouri, temperatures are recovering to near ninety. (which was my forecast for today, it won’t work out form much of the area but in this case I’m happy!)

Notice that in Iowa, the temperature do cool and dew points drop.  This are is behind a second cool front dropping southward.  The upshot of all of this is that we will be more comfortable over the next few days!

Heat Update

2:18 pm in Extreme Weather, The Ozarks by Ted Keller

Heat Index at 3 pm

Heat index values have stayed consistently above 105 this afternoon over nearly all of the Ozarks.  This is the hottest airmass of the year so far and all signs are that this level of heat and humidity will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The forecast is for actual temperatures to be in the upper nineties to near one hundred for the next two days.  Please remember to check on those who may not have air conditioning, the elderly or the very young and watch your exertion level, you’re limits are different in this heat than a normal summer day!

Heat advisories continue through Thursday.  A cool front will break up this heat beginning on Thursday.

Important Live Webcast Information!

11:09 am in Did You Know?, In the News by Ted Keller

Do to the overwhelmimg popular demand for this, I will be broadcasting live on the web at the following times today.  A live chat room is featured, bring questions or comments!:

1:00 pm  A weather briefing I give to my students at MSU.  About ten minutes.

4-5 pm  A chat room will be open and I will cycle through some maps.  Limited live talking due to TV preparation but I’ll pop in from time to time!

6:30 pm Live from the Weather Lab!  About half and hour.

11:00 pm The regular broadcast of “Upstream” from my house.  Half hour or more.

The link to all of these broadcasts on Ustream.tv

Winter Storm Update

4:41 pm in Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

I’ll have a snow projection graphic at 5, 6 and 10 on KOLR news and on KSFX tonight at 9 pm.  Also, I will have a special edition of my late night live web show “Upstream” at 6:30 tonight!  It will also air at its usual time at 11 pm as well.

There is a big snow headed for the Ozarks, the only question is how much and where to lay down the heaviest.

Model inconsistencies make it difficult to pin down and exact heavy snow track at this distance.  But there is support for an area of at least six inches of snow to spread eastward across the Ozarks beginning late Thursday and ending Friday.  As I mentioned, a few models are going crazy with the snow totals;  it remains to be seen how much a mixture of sleet or freezing rain will knock down some of those totals.

All folks should be aware that travel southwest to Oklahoma will be a real problem beinging early Thursday.  There will also be a big difference north-south over the Ozarks on storm accumulation over a short distance.  There should be a narrow area sandwiched between where the sleet and ice mix in to the south and where the snow tapers off to the north were a heavy snow band will be laid down.

There is the possibility of freezing rain in northern Arkansas as well.

Below is my forecast discussion from earlier today.  DO NOT USE PAST 10 PM TONIGHT!

Cold Stats and a Pattern Shift!

10:19 am in Forecast Discussion by Ted Keller

Well, we have been shivering since December 1st with only a few periods of warmth.  The latest cold snap was a 10 day run of sub-freezing days which ended today, which ranks right at the bottom of the top ten list.  The longest such stretch was 22 days back in 1905!  The period produced 4 sub-zero readings with the lowest of -7 on Sunday morning. The second coldest -5 occurred on Saturday morning which established a tied record for that date.  Other interesting cold weather stats can be viewed here.

James River Arm of Table Rock Frozen, Erwin McQueen

Now, not only will this week warm but there is a fundamental shift in the overall pattern of weather which will keep us above normal for much of this week and a lot of next!  This pattern shift will bring heavy rains and snows to California and could produce more spring-like weather here next week too!

For a behind-the-scenes look at all of this and more, tune in after the late news to “Upstream” at 11 pm, a live weather web show!

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